2023 Tropical Weather

[warneagle]

27 fatalities so far per ABC

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile in the Caribbean

 

[bjdeming]

There is a very Halloweenish feel to the tropics right now, and not in a good way.

In terms of Otis data, the UNAM Geophysics Institute shared their tide gauge data, as long as the feed was up, as the hurricane came in (link is to PDF):

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Preliminary damage totals from Otis are 15 billion! That is a whopping three times Manuel's old record! Looks like we'll need a new male Pacific "O" name...

 

[OHWX97]

Aerial videos show the immense devastation left by Otis along the coast of Acapulco. I highly suspect it will surpass Hurricane Wilma as the costliest weather event in Mexico's history, perhaps by a substantial margin.


The situation is dire and evolving into a serious humanitarian crisis. I'm seeing a lot of uproar on social media about slow and negligible government response. There are remote areas of the metro that are still cut off and in desperate need of help. It’s also feared that the actual death toll is much higher than 27. I gotta be honest here, this is feeling very reminiscent to the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

There's a different hurricane discussion forum, Storm2K, and the discussion about Otis' aftermath was so big that they took the Otis page in "Active Tropical Cyclones" (basically the equivalent of one of our tornado event pages) and literally just pulled it into "Talkin' Tropics" (their version of our Sigtor thread, but as a whole forum area) in its entirety. It's only 16 pages, but you typically don't see a full thread that tracked a TC from formation to dissipation get pulled into perhaps the most active part of the forum like that.

 

[OHWX97]

With each passing day, the extent of Otis' destruction is becoming more clear. While most of the attention thus far has been on the coastal areas of Acapulco, further inland, hillside neighborhoods have been completely devastated.

 

[akt1985]

CBS News is reporting nearly 100 fatalities from Otis. I’m a bit confused because some outlets are saying 45 dead. Still, not good.

 

[bjdeming]

Webcams de México has at least one of its Acapulco cams up (haven't checked the rest yet) -- under the heading "Acapulco -- Always Strong, Always United," and this time they are panning it along the beach:

 

[Clancy]

The tropics are a strange mistress.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist in association with a
trough of low pressure located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
of this system over the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend as the system starts moving
northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean
Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to
investigate the system tomorrow.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater
Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti,
the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near
southern Florida along a frontal boundary by tomorrow. This system
is then forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas
and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend.
Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this
system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across
portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas
during the next couple of days. For more information on this
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

 

[Clancy]

Gulf system now at 70% chance of development.

1. West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low
pressure area over the west-central Caribbean Sea remains broad,
but the system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the east of the center of circulation.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica,
Haiti, and eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is en route to investigate the system.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains which would likely result in flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the Greater Antilles, particularly over Jamaica and
Hispaniola, through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba,
Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Tropical storm watches could be required for some of
these areas as early as this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[Clancy]

Forecast cone now for 22.

 

[bjdeming]

Otis :



Latest count reportedly fifty dead and thirty missing.

 

[JPWX]

For those of you who keep up with global tropical activity, the western Pacific has not had a named tropical system thus far this November. The only two most recent years where this has happened are 2010 and 2011. The only other year outside of those two recent years is 1963. As for as ENSO status is concerned, 2010-2011 was a central Pacific Modoki La Nina. Something to keep in mind as we go forward.

 

[JPWX]

Thought I would share this with you all. @JBishopwx @Clancy

(1851 to 2023) Atlantic

Total Subtropical Depressions: 1

Total Potential Tropical Cyclones: 3

Total Tropical Depressions: 374 (17.62%)

Total Subtropical Storms: 30 (1.41%)

Total Tropical Storms: 749 (35.28%)

Total Cat.1 Hurricanes: 373 (17.57%)

Total Cat.2 Hurricanes: 258 (12.15%)

Total Cat.3 Major Hurricanes: 159 (7.49%)

Total Cat.4 Major Hurricanes: 132 (6.22%)

Total Cat.5 Major Hurricanes: 40 (1.88%)

Totals By Decade: (1850s thru 2020s):

1850s Decade Total: 53 (2.50%)

1860s Decade Total: 73 (3.44%)

1870s Decade Total: 78 (3.67%)

1880s Decade Total: 89 (4.19%)

1890s Decade Total: 83 (3.91%)

1900s Decade Total: 93 (4.38%)

1910s Decade Total: 93 (4.38%)

1920s Decade Total: 92 (4.33%)

1930s Decade Total: 135 (6.36%)

1940s Decade Total: 135 (6.36%)

1950s Decade Total: 146 (6.88%)

1960s Decade Total: 143 (6.74%)

1970s Decade Total: 215 (10.13%)

1980s Decade Total: 130 (6.12%)

1990s Decade Total: 135 (6.36%)

2000s Decade Total: 173 (8.15%)

2010s Decade Total: 167 (7.87%)

2020s Decade Total: 90 (4.24%) (this includes 2023)

Grand Total By Decade (1850s-2020s): 2,123

Most TD’s During a Decade: 1970s (116)

Most TS’s During a Decade: 2010s (80)

Most Cat.1 Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s (30)

Most Cat.2 Hurr’s During a Decade: 1860s (29)

Most Cat.3 Major Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s (13)

Most Cat.4 Major Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s and 1950s (15)

Most Cat.5 Major Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s (8)


Tropical Impacts By County (1851-2022) (Within 60 miles):

Baldwin County, AL: 112 (7.8%)

• 13 impacts during El Nino (8.1%)
• 16 impacts during La Nina (6.7%)
• 18 impacts during Neutral (6.3%)

Bay County, FL: 114 (8.0%)

• 15 impacts during El Nino (9.4%)
• 17 impacts during La Nina (7.1%)
• 19 impacts during Neutral (6.6%)

Cameron Parish, LA: 90 (6.3%)

• 9 impacts during El Nino (5.6%)
• 19 impacts during La Nina (7.9%)
• 21 impacts during Neutral (7.3%)

Escambia County, FL: 110 (7.7%)

• 15 impacts during El Nino (9.4%)
• 15 impacts during La Nina (6.3%)
• 17 impacts during Neutral (5.9%)

Franklin County, FL: 111 (7.8%)

• 14 impacts during El Nino (8.8%)
• 19 impacts during La Nina (7.9%)
• 24 impacts during Neutral (8.4%)

Galveston County, TX: 92 (6.4%)

• 7 impacts during El Nino (4.4%)
• 15 impacts during La Nina (6.3%)
• 24 impacts during Neutral (8.4%)

Harris County, TX: 77 (5.4%)

• 6 impacts during El Nino (3.8%)
• 13 impacts during La Nina (5.4%)
• 22 impacts during Neutral (7.7%)

Harrison County, MS: 103 (7.2%)

• 12 impacts during El Nino (7.5%)
• 20 impacts during La Nina (8.4%)
• 18 impacts during Neutral (6.3%)

Hillsborough County, FL: 126 (8.8%)

• 18 impacts during El Nino (11.3%)
• 14 impacts during La Nina (5.9%)
• 23 impacts during Neutral (8.0%)

Jefferson County, TX: 88 (6.2%)

• 7 impacts during El Nino (4.4%)
• 16 impacts during La Nina (6.7%)
• 25 impacts during Neutral (8.7%)

Miami-Dade County, FL: 132 (9.2%)

• 13 impacts during El Nino (8.1%)
• 22 impacts during La Nina (9.2%)
• 26 impacts during Neutral (9.1%)

Mobile County, AL: 112 (7.8%)

• 13 impacts during El Nino (8.1%)
• 17 impacts during La Nina (7.1%)
• 18 impacts during Neutral (6.3%)

Nueces County, TX: 60 (4.2%)

• 4 impacts during El Nino (2.5%)
• 15 impacts during La Nina (6.3%)
• 16 impacts during Neutral (5.6%)

Orleans Parish, LA: 102 (7.1%)

• 14 impacts during El Nino (8.8%)
• 21 impacts during La Nina (8.8%)
• 15 impacts during Neutral (5.2%)

 

[Clancy]

Thought I would share this with you all. @JBishopwx @Clancy

(1851 to 2023) Atlantic

Total Subtropical Depressions: 1

Total Potential Tropical Cyclones: 3

Total Tropical Depressions: 374 (17.62%)

Total Subtropical Storms: 30 (1.41%)

Total Tropical Storms: 749 (35.28%)

Total Cat.1 Hurricanes: 373 (17.57%)

Total Cat.2 Hurricanes: 258 (12.15%)

Total Cat.3 Major Hurricanes: 159 (7.49%)

Total Cat.4 Major Hurricanes: 132 (6.22%)

Total Cat.5 Major Hurricanes: 40 (1.88%)

Totals By Decade: (1850s thru 2020s):

1850s Decade Total: 53 (2.50%)

1860s Decade Total: 73 (3.44%)

1870s Decade Total: 78 (3.67%)

1880s Decade Total: 89 (4.19%)

1890s Decade Total: 83 (3.91%)

1900s Decade Total: 93 (4.38%)

1910s Decade Total: 93 (4.38%)

1920s Decade Total: 92 (4.33%)

1930s Decade Total: 135 (6.36%)

1940s Decade Total: 135 (6.36%)

1950s Decade Total: 146 (6.88%)

1960s Decade Total: 143 (6.74%)

1970s Decade Total: 215 (10.13%)

1980s Decade Total: 130 (6.12%)

1990s Decade Total: 135 (6.36%)

2000s Decade Total: 173 (8.15%)

2010s Decade Total: 167 (7.87%)

2020s Decade Total: 90 (4.24%) (this includes 2023)

Grand Total By Decade (1850s-2020s): 2,123

Most TD’s During a Decade: 1970s (116)

Most TS’s During a Decade: 2010s (80)

Most Cat.1 Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s (30)

Most Cat.2 Hurr’s During a Decade: 1860s (29)

Most Cat.3 Major Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s (13)

Most Cat.4 Major Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s and 1950s (15)

Most Cat.5 Major Hurr’s During a Decade: 2000s (8)


Tropical Impacts By County (1851-2022) (Within 60 miles):

Baldwin County, AL: 112 (7.8%)

• 13 impacts during El Nino (8.1%)
• 16 impacts during La Nina (6.7%)
• 18 impacts during Neutral (6.3%)

Bay County, FL: 114 (8.0%)

• 15 impacts during El Nino (9.4%)
• 17 impacts during La Nina (7.1%)
• 19 impacts during Neutral (6.6%)

Cameron Parish, LA: 90 (6.3%)

• 9 impacts during El Nino (5.6%)
• 19 impacts during La Nina (7.9%)
• 21 impacts during Neutral (7.3%)

Escambia County, FL: 110 (7.7%)

• 15 impacts during El Nino (9.4%)
• 15 impacts during La Nina (6.3%)
• 17 impacts during Neutral (5.9%)

Franklin County, FL: 111 (7.8%)

• 14 impacts during El Nino (8.8%)
• 19 impacts during La Nina (7.9%)
• 24 impacts during Neutral (8.4%)

Galveston County, TX: 92 (6.4%)

• 7 impacts during El Nino (4.4%)
• 15 impacts during La Nina (6.3%)
• 24 impacts during Neutral (8.4%)

Harris County, TX: 77 (5.4%)

• 6 impacts during El Nino (3.8%)
• 13 impacts during La Nina (5.4%)
• 22 impacts during Neutral (7.7%)

Harrison County, MS: 103 (7.2%)

• 12 impacts during El Nino (7.5%)
• 20 impacts during La Nina (8.4%)
• 18 impacts during Neutral (6.3%)

Hillsborough County, FL: 126 (8.8%)

• 18 impacts during El Nino (11.3%)
• 14 impacts during La Nina (5.9%)
• 23 impacts during Neutral (8.0%)

Jefferson County, TX: 88 (6.2%)

• 7 impacts during El Nino (4.4%)
• 16 impacts during La Nina (6.7%)
• 25 impacts during Neutral (8.7%)

Miami-Dade County, FL: 132 (9.2%)

• 13 impacts during El Nino (8.1%)
• 22 impacts during La Nina (9.2%)
• 26 impacts during Neutral (9.1%)

Mobile County, AL: 112 (7.8%)

• 13 impacts during El Nino (8.1%)
• 17 impacts during La Nina (7.1%)
• 18 impacts during Neutral (6.3%)

Nueces County, TX: 60 (4.2%)

• 4 impacts during El Nino (2.5%)
• 15 impacts during La Nina (6.3%)
• 16 impacts during Neutral (5.6%)

Orleans Parish, LA: 102 (7.1%)

• 14 impacts during El Nino (8.8%)
• 21 impacts during La Nina (8.8%)
• 15 impacts during Neutral (5.2%)

Dang JP, you are a statistics machine!

 

[JPWX]

Dang JP, you are a statistics machine!

I've done a lot of data collection over the years in word documents or handwritten. Talking to Meteorologist Jake Carstens earlier today gave me yet another idea. I just come up with new data collection ideas randomly especially ones that can help in future forecasting. I also have a spreadsheet with the total ACE index for each tropical basin by year. It just keeps me busy. I've currently started working on the Eastern Pacific tropical powerpoints beginning with 2001 thru present day.

 

[Clancy]

I've done a lot of data collection over the years in word documents or handwritten. Talking to Meteorologist Jake Carstens earlier today gave me yet another idea. I just come up with new data collection ideas randomly especially ones that can help in future forecasting. I also have a spreadsheet with the total ACE index for each tropical basin by year. It just keeps me busy. I've currently started working on the Eastern Pacific tropical powerpoints beginning with 2001 thru present day.

Well definitely keep it up, that's awesome!

 

[JPWX]

January CANSIPS showing La Nina coming on by March and strengthening/transitioning to Modoki type event by peak hurricane season. I have no changes to my preliminary outlook.