2023 Tropical Weather

[JBishopwx]

Euro has been pretty consistent. NHC is now up to 60%

 

[JPWX]

So I know everything points towards Florida or the easternmost Florida Panhandle for now, but what would be the main factor in keeping this from getting back west (like say from New Orleans to Panama City/Destin) area? @Taylor Campbell @JBishopwx Reason I'm asking is because I'm wanting to try to intercept a hurricane landfall (category 1 for starters) and sadly Orange Beach is my only option unless I hitch a ride with some other meteorologists going down for something. My first tropical intercept was 70mph TS Gordon in 2018. Was a great storm to test out. Not too much damage and not too strong.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

LOL, the GFS which has been the least impressed about this tropical system until now on the 12z run showed a 975-977mb landfall just west of Panama City, FL at 7am Wednesday morning.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The Pacific has TD-10 that will become Irwin, and the Atlantic has TD-10 that will become Idalia.

 

[JPWX]

The Pacific has TD-10 that will become Irwin, and the Atlantic has TD-10 that will become Idalia.

Only 2 times where both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic has had their I named storm in August (2005 and 2012). The only time where both the I name storm was active at the same time in both basins in August was 2012. Today marks only the 3rd time on record.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Watch the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic along 47W, south of 14N as it moves into the Caribbean. The operational GFS has shown development into a consolidated low since yesterday’s 12z run before impact to Central America. There’s a possibility in the long term that this energy could transfer into the Bay of Campeche and be a threat to the Texas Coast late in the first week of September (3rd-9th).

 

[Clancy]

NHC designated TD 11. Expected to remain weak and out at sea.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[gangstonc]

The wave that will be exiting the coast of Africa in a couple days will be running into a welcome environment

 

[Clancy]

System near Cape Verde becoming organized. Thankfully should stay well out at sea.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms with some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in
the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

 

[Clancy]

NHC increased chances of medium-range formation for the disturbance coming off the coast of West Africa. Hopefully it takes a long hike out into the middle of the Atlantic but this is the area to watch for the time being.

2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the early and middle
parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

My mouth is dropped to the floor. Very rarely do you see the EURO forecast the intensity of a tropical system like this in the Atlantic. This looks like potential for Dorian type intensity.

 

[Clancy]

My mouth is dropped to the floor. Very rarely do you see the EURO forecast the intensity of a tropical system like this in the Atlantic. This looks like potential for Dorian type intensity.

Noooo thank you.

 

[Clancy]

Chances for development mid-range on that disturbance up now.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

My mouth is dropped to the floor. Very rarely do you see the EURO forecast the intensity of a tropical system like this in the Atlantic. This looks like potential for Dorian type intensity.

I want to see this happen, but ONLY IF it doesn't affect land. It appears some of those Euro tracks take it out to sea, so...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yep, you see that right. More tropical systems to develop in the Atlantic which would get us to Nigel by next weekend. We will have to watch the system closely that’s expected to get its act together around the same place Lee did at 40W as it could become a threat to landmass.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Doo doo doo doo...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The Hurricane Analysis Forecast System forecast pressures into the low 930s. The new pressure is at 933mb and wind is at 135knts. I think we are going to see a stronger storm.

WTPZ41 KNHC 062038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution
1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening
major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep
convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite
intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB.
Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial
intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to
rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours.

Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid
intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models,
DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the
climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24
hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI
probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135
kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles
could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast
lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable
environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to
cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air,
which should induce weakening.

Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of
west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it
rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The
forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly