Brice
Member
supercells could form on Tuesday around 7-8 PM CDT and congeal into a line only question is if there will be supercells which it seems pretty confident that’s the case
supercells could form on Tuesday around 7-8 PM CDT and congeal into a line only question is if there will be supercells which it seems pretty confident that’s the case
Pretty nasty comma head here
Tornado watch is up for most of the coastal mid-Atlantic. 40/20 probs.
I'm waiting for a few more sets of model runs to watch for at least the first signals of consistency, but so far, the general idea has been there on multiple GFS runs now... as well as support in the Euro ensembles and the Canadian. There is a growing signal. I think the first time period we have to watch is the 12th-14th, maybe stretching toward the 15th if the system were to lean slower.GFS is showing a system on the 15th and another on the 18th with 60 dewpoints as far north as Nashville and warmer temps prior to the systems. I don't know what to look for in the wind fields but this may be what is being referenced? Not uncommon to have some rough weather this late in the year for Alabama and Mississippi.
The latest PDO for November is in... depending on what source you use, it's -1.55 or -1.71. HUGE drop, and way ahead of any modeling. Here is latest value compared to CFS, for example, which is this far behind but still gets it to -2 by April...Looking more and more likely that we may get a +TNI configuration heading into spring based on latest Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 data with the former cooling and the latter warming.
Those two things being what they are are major red flags for Dixie Alley severe as we head into late winter and spring. These are the two large scale teleconnections that help the La Nina itself drive the classic severe weather pattern you see in years like 1974, 2008, 2011, etc, etc. It doesn't mean an event of that magnitude will happen, but the door isn't locked shut for it like it is other years, and these are the large scale conditions that are in place when big events in Dixie happen.So what's the implication of the TNI and PDO numbers for severe weather? Is there a correlation?
Okay, thanks for the explanation. My knowledge of large-scale climatological stuff is sorely lacking.Those two things being what they are are major red flags for Dixie Alley severe as we head into late winter and spring. These are the two large scale teleconnections that help the La Nina itself drive the classic severe weather pattern you see in years like 1974, 2008, 2011, etc, etc. It doesn't mean an event of that magnitude will happen, but the door isn't locked shut for it like it is other years, and these are the large scale conditions that are in place when big events in Dixie happen.
fixing to post that. lolThe GFS is hinting at perhaps a significant event or two late next week the 17-18th and the week following it.