I have seen many euro runs that look like that in the beginning that ends up being a SE severe maker....not sure that is the case this time around, but usually a deamp trend tends to mean further east.
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I have seen many euro runs that look like that in the beginning that ends up being a SE severe maker....not sure that is the case this time around, but usually a deamp trend tends to mean further east.
The Euro is notorious for overamplifying things at this range. I'm not particularly concerned about it at this juncture. If anything, it's a good thing because that means that things may not be underamped at verification.
The pattern next week is going to mean trouble for someone late in the week, that's a given.Very possible. Either way, another big system on its heels with the big jet streak entering into California at hour 240 with deep moisture in place over the south. Gonna be a lot of model watching over the next two weeks.
The models are already starting to disagree on whether or not there will even be any severe weather late next week. 0Z GFS has much of central OK and KS under EHI values >4 on Thursday evening. 0Z CFS has CAPE values >2,000 over part of central OK during that same time frame, but even higher values over central TX Friday and Saturday. Other models don't seem to suggest much out of the ordinary. This will almost certainly be one of those "wait and see"-type events.
? I don't see any major global with no severe weather threat next week. The 0z Euro is an omnious Dixie look as well. What models are you talking about?
Correction *0z Euro
Yes, see several possible widespread events...a strong and large upper low moving slowly east in mid April, not good...just looking for some consisantcy in dates and location.GFS and Euro showing a second disturbance around the 17th. Gonna be an interesting month that's for sure.
yeah... looks to be the start of a active severe pattern coming up
SPC starting to highlight regions in the LR, day 6. I'm sure placement will shift & possibly trend northward.
Euro still showing some fair consistency (with the exception of timing the low placement around 12 hours sooner, 12 hours later):
low level shear that been showing on the euro... favor a tornado threat... also wind fields look rather impressive this far out...GFS seems to be in its own world regarding this weekend's system...go figure. Euro/CMC agree with the slower solution and much better moisture return allowing a more potent warm sector. UKMET through 144 hrs agrees with the slower evolution like the Euro/CMC.
Very deep trough on the models which takes on a negative tilt. I never like to talk storm mode this far out, but this would probably be another nasty squall line marching across the South.
no... true... but this threat does begin on a friday 13th... which is creepy in its on way... thats if your superstitious....At least this system isn't on a Wednesday...
Do you think the current Outlook SPC has highlighted will be expanded eastward? I could see Memphis getting in on this.no... true... but this threat does begin on a friday 13th... which is creepy in its on way... thats if your superstitious....
Yes. At this time....Do you think the current Outlook SPC has highlighted will be expanded eastward? I could see Memphis getting in on this.