What an intellectual convo I’m reading.
Back on topic, I’m actually stumped on why the NWS risk area in Ohio failed so miserably on the favorability of the environment.
Because looking back at the mesos, there was more than enough effective helicity and the low level lapse rates were well over 6c per km. CAPE was in the 2000s and that’s literally where the greatest bulk shear was located.
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The 200mb jet streak was creating the strongest divergence/lift in Indiana and Ohio, so I can’t for the life of me guess why the highest risk wasn’t designated here.