Why Has The SPC Been "Off" This Year?

[mike36]

I know these ladies and men are the best in the business but what gives this year? Is it new models that are not as accurate or something? It's been that way this season. For example this morning, they had a MD talking about a possible watch upcoming for South Georgia but then they issue a watch for Northern Georgia??

 

[barcncpt44]

And it might get worse too. Under Trump's new budget, there is a provision that would cancel key upgrades to the National Weather Service's (NWS) computer modeling program. We would fall even further behind other forecasting models.

http://mashable.com/2017/05/24/trump-budget-hurts-weather-forecasting/?utm_cid=hp-n-1#OWv_.JEYiiqJ

 

[Jacob]

And it might get worse too. Under Trump's new budget, there is a provision that would cancel key upgrades to the National Weather Service's (NWS) computer modeling program. We would fall even further behind other forecasting models.

http://mashable.com/2017/05/24/trump-budget-hurts-weather-forecasting/?utm_cid=hp-n-1#OWv_.JEYiiqJ

Regardless of the budget, the issues at the SPC this year have been forecaster decisions, not model issues.

 

[KoD]

Regardless of the budget, the issues at the SPC this year have been forecaster decisions, not model issues.

I feel like it's a little of both, but primarily forecaster decisions. Synoptic scale complications that often trend (fly in the ointment situations), and it seems like the spc has had amnesia about those common denominators. I think models are partly to blame, though wisdom should really supercede the predictions especially when they're consistently wrong.

 

[SilentShadow87]

While we're on the topic of SPC budget cuts, is that the reason why the LSR graphs on the WCM page haven't been updated to the 2016 reports? I'm not seeing any graphs for tornado, hail, or wind reports from last year, and usually they're posted by the end of April if not sooner. What's going on here?

Just for example:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png