Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[Clancy]

There's that jet. 300 m2/s2 SRH over Eastern AL.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Storm-net shows something that may get going

 

[Clancy]

I'm not sure I've ever seen a risk area as small as that enhanced in Ohio.

It sure is quite puny!

 

[Kragg]

It keeps trying to do something (Hale county AL)

 

[TornadoFan17]

I'm not going to say today was a "b word", but I don't think it lived up to its potential as a moderate with a 15% TOR risk.

Granted, the night isn't over.

 

[Clancy]

Latest MD: Storms may intensify over the next few hours, posing risk for tornadoes, winds.

Mesoscale Discussion 0361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Central Alabama into western Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 82...

Valid 030143Z - 030345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 82 continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms over west-central AL may
intensify in the next hour or two, posing a risk of a few tornadoes
and wind damage.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms that formed over southeast
MS has now moved into west-central and southwest AL. The air mass
ahead of these storms continues to moisten with dewpoints in the mid
60s now as far north as BHM. Meanwhile, an intensifying southerly
low-level jet is focusing across southern/central AL as shown by
regional VAD data. Recent hodographs from the BMX/MXX/EOX radars
show large, looping shear profiles with 0-3km SRH values of 300-400
m2/s2. 00z RAOBs from BMX/FFC showed a deep warm-layer from 0-4km,
that has thus far limited updrafts strength. However, model
guidance suggests this layer will cool somewhat in the next 1-2
hours, allowing more robust convection. Both the HRRR and recent
WoFS runs show the corridor from the current storms eastward to the
south of the BHM area toward the western ATL suburbs as having a
relatively greater threat in the next few hours for severe storms
including a few tornadoes.

..Hart.. 04/03/2024

 

[KevinH]

 

[SmokeEater]

I’m glad the tornado threat up north wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been.
Although there has been multiple significant tornadoes today in that area, so I guess the moderate risk did at least verify moderately. (excuse the horrific joke)

Where have there been multiple significant tornadoes today? There's been very little major damage anywhere in the moderate or even enhanced. The worst damage out of the whole day seems to be from the earlier line of storms in WV.

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[GeneralChow]

Where have there been multiple significant tornadoes today? There's been very little major damage anywhere in the moderate or even enhanced. The worst damage out of the whole day seems to be from the earlier line of storms in WV.

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There were four PDS warnings at the same time around 6:00PM. Fortunately, the majority cycled before doing too much damage.

 

[jiharris0220]

Where have there been multiple significant tornadoes today? There's been very little major damage anywhere in the moderate or even enhanced. The worst damage out of the whole day seems to be from the earlier line of storms in WV.

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There have been multiple pds tornado warnings, particularly with two supercells that produced tds. One of them caused at least three injuries is what I heard watching Ryan Halls live stream.

 

[Shawn Cowden]

tornado that occured this evening in whitley county kentucky just south of corbin. they had a severe storm warning with a tornado tag on the storm issued by JKL. some damage is in the area don't know how bad things are at this time though

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[Mike S]

Stop it

 

[Clancy]

Even though they're currently behaving, I just don't trust these cells moving through AL right now. That they're maintaining couplets like these, even if weak, is a bit strange, and as that warm layer erodes they may start acting up.

 

[jiharris0220]

The forcing just hasn’t been strong today, despite the strong LLS, high cape, and good moisture, weak atmospheric buoyancy basically renders it all useless since storms are too weak to take advantage.

 

[Justin Hindman]

I know all of Ohio being under a mdt was a joke. Hrr did a great job with that region. There was probably a bunch of small tornadoes here and there. Look forward to surveys

 

[Clancy]

Instability surging eastward, a bit more aggressive than forecasted.

 

[jiharris0220]

Despite 3000 cape it will hardly matter if lapse rates are this pathetic.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, AL storms are struggling to take off. Not even a SVR over the last couple hours despite several transient mesocyclones apparent on radar.