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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

Jpgood97

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Not to come off any type of way, but I thought the vehicle damage might be more extensive after watching the velocity scans last night. Of course it’s early, and the first images are just coming out
 

TornadoFan17

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Not to come off any type of way, but I thought the vehicle damage might be more extensive after watching the velocity scans last night. Of course it’s early, and the first images are just coming out
I'm not a storm surveyor by any means, but I noticed that too. High velocities on radar, houses completely gone but (relatively) tame vehicle damage. I wonder what the structural integrity of these houses were. I guess we'll find out soon.
 

Mike S

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I am watching coverage this morning on Fox Weather and I have never seen two people talking over each other as much as the two meteorologists on the air this morning.
 
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For those who were arguing about the TORE declaration last night


I agree with everything said in this tweet. Also, population shouldn't matter...but it does some times when that decision is made.

Here was RAC training guidance not too long ago (see thumbnail).

Also, since updates were made, here is a link that has some other handy info that others may like to have.

 

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If I had a dollar for every time someone yelled bust, I would be very rich
To me a “bust” is basically nothing tornadic going up at all. Like a blue sky bust due to a very stout capping inversion.

“Underperformed in relation to what was being forecasted” is usually the best term.

No, the high risk didn’t and won’t verify, but we had what was possibly a violent, long tracked tornado and there was severe weather all day yesterday. However, piling on the SPC is idiotic
 
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Wouldn’t dry air prevent the storms from sustaining? They seemed to sustain just fine yesterday, and grew to upwards of 50kft.
To me Kansas’ performance is the most anomalous. More than Ample forcing, no cap, very high VTPs, but storm coverage was lethargic until the line came through. My guess was shear related as the storms that did go still couldn’t produce tornados very well
 

Maxis_s

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Do you guys think the somewhat poor (under 7 C/km) 0-3km lapse rates played an effect in limiting the severe potential?
 
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Do you guys think the somewhat poor (under 7 C/km) 0-3km lapse rates played an effect in limiting the severe potential?
Someone more knowledgeable can chime in, but I think it was just wonky, unhealthy supercell dynamics.

Poor lapse rates can usually show up under a stout cap, but the dryline seemed to have decent enough LLLRs and was uncapped for storms to fire off and sustain themselves for a while. As the cap eroded in the OWS, storms were still able to take off (Barnsdall). That low level instability can be very important though as high 3CAPE values can aid greatly in stretching and tornado-genesis.
 
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