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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

Fred Gossage

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What's BTI?
Baron Tornado Index. It is Baron's tornado ranking algorithm that takes environmental data and combines it with radar data (but weighs heavier on the environmental data for the calculation) and does a ranking of 0-10 of the likelihood of the storm to produce a tornado. Higher values naturally have a higher chance, but storms that have a BTI that quickly trends upward with time over a few radar scans and/or have a higher BTI than the other storms surrounding them are storms to pay close attention to. The 9.1 there is more driven by the parameter space than it is radar suggesting there's a violent tornado down. On the same token, in the cool season when instability is lower, you can frequently get EF2-EF4 tornadoes with a BTI as low as a 4-5.
 

Maxis_s

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The Douglas storm is an absolute mess. I can't tell if it's gonna produce or not anymore.
...I spoke too soon.
 
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