warneagle
Member
Makes sense to me, give them as much lead time as possible rather than having to scramble into place later.Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.
Makes sense to me, give them as much lead time as possible rather than having to scramble into place later.Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.
But it's good that Oklahoma is getting hours of lead time.Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.
Not sure I've ever seen one of these for a severe weather event before, except for maybe during a snowstorm once?Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.
Given current trends, does this still seem a possibility? If storms initiate too early in OK they could go quasi-linear before the best forcing arrives.Have to imagine there may be a 45 hatch at 20z if trends continue toward good confidence in coverage and location
At this point, 45, 30, 60, ...it's just splitting hairs -- a high-end tornado threat is possible. The exact category assigned at this point is somewhat subjective to the SPC forecasters. 45 could happen, but if not, a 30 is still a very serious high-end threat, given the models and trends today.Given current trends, does this still seem a possibility? If storms initiate too early in OK they could go quasi-linear before the best forcing arrives.
Yikes. What's the timeframe for that?Hrrr now showing 5000j of scape into parts of Oklahoma later
A bit earlyPDS tor watch will be issued in the next 30 minutes or so.
Around 5-7 pm it seems, not 100% sureYikes. What's the timeframe for that?
I think the idea is to give a long lead time, especially given that this watch is just for the areas west of I-35.A bit early
They basically just multiply the SPC probabilities by two to make them more sensational so probably whenever the last 45% was. I honestly don’t pay any attention to it because it doesn’t add any value to the publicly available info.I know some aren't a fan of it, but when was the last torcon of 9? March 31, 2023?
Yea was gonna say, that's 100% why, long lead time watch.I think the idea is to give a long lead time, especially given that this watch is just for the areas west of I-35.
I think it was one of the march 2021 Alabama high risk days was the last 45%I know some aren't a fan of it, but when was the last torcon of 9? March 31, 2023?
Those are now automatically decided based on the SPC tornado probabilities. A sigtor-driven MDT automatically puts it at 7-8. A sigtor-driven HIGH automatically puts it at 9, and then they may make it 10 if the tornado probability goes above 30%.I know some aren't a fan of it, but when was the last torcon of 9? March 31, 2023?
That would've been the 17th, I believe.I think it was one of the march 2021 Alabama high risk days was the last 45%