Clancy
Member
First storms forming now in KS. Not expecting them to immediately go tornadic, but they are definitely starting early.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER -
April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
SmokeEater
Member
Eh, don't know if coverage will justify it, but it doesn't matter at this point, every outlet in the area is hammering this to no end. No one is downplaying it.
SouthFLwx
Member
I don't think these storms are part of the main event.
Clancy
Member
Barely worth mentioning, but a low-end all-hazards severe threat will exist for parts of AL/GA/TN today for the risk of a few severe storms this afternoon. Would be very on-brand for this area to throw out some random supercell this afternoon.
Clancy
Member
They'll likely become a part of the QLCS that moves through KS later today; storms were modelled to initiate around this area on CAMs.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Same. I think the brush with the synoptic forcing in Oklahoma instead of a pretty solid “push” may yield fewer cells. Could be something like 5/31/13, where any cells that do go up will be absolute monsters but not a pock marked 4-5 supercell parade traversing the state.
warneagle
Member
More or less in line with what the HRRR etc have been showing up there with initiation ca. 16-17z
Current sbcape 
SmokeEater
Member
Don't know if anyone on the board can confirm, seeing a lot of people at OU hammering the school for not canceling exams tonight, and saying they won't unless a warning is issued while it is going on. I don't know how you can expect anyone to concentrate with a risk like this ongoing.
warneagle
Member
Idk, I kind of get it from the perspective of the instructors if there’s nothing going on at that time of day since that would really mess with their schedules for getting final grades in. Bringing back some PTSD from my college teaching days.
Clancy
Member
Yeah, there's usually pretty hard deadlines you can't mess around with this time of the semester. That said, no way 90% of those students aren't going to be staring out the window/their radar/out chasing today.
keithGA
Member
With all due respect, eff your grading schedules. Not worth the risk.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Jeff Duda (not sure what his specialized field of study is in meteorology but he does have a PhD) says this event may actually have a better chance of verifying as a wind driven high risk than tornado due to the forcing at play. Too strong in Kansas, too weak in Oklahoma. Not exactly sure what models he is getting that from but something to keep in mind failure mode wise I guess.
Peter Griffin
Member
Probably a dumb question but is there a situation where there can be too much shear? Like it could shred the updraft and make it more difficult for them to consolidate so you end up with more shorter track and hopefully less destructive tornadoes?
Muwx
Member
The SPC has admitted that they do not like to issue high risks for wind, while what he is saying could be true, i'd be stunned if they issued a wind driven high risk.
jiharris0220
Member
If there was abundant mid level dry air or weak instability this would be the case, unfortunately not remotely a possibility.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
No they won’t do that, I think he just meant forcing wise would maybe present a greater wind threat than a tornado threat due to storm coverage and a more forced linear mode in Kansas.
TheSuckZone
Member
If other ingredients aren't in place, then yes you can have too much shear. I don't think that will come into play today though.
Clancy
Member
Tornado Watch out for KS and NE.
SilentShadow87
Member
I've been out of the loop on this one to be honest, what's the timeframe for the main storms looking like?
