Yes, cyclic/long-track. It's just a question of how many that's the deciding factor between upper-end MDT Risk and upgrade to HIGH Risk.So we looking at multiple cyclic supercells?
I live near Wichita so I must be in the higher end environment. It will be warm and muggy with temperatures in the low to upper 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid to upper 60s.Yes, cyclic/long-track. It's just a question of how many that's the deciding factor between upper-end MDT Risk and upgrade to HIGH Risk.
It will be five years since 5/20/19 on May 20th.I remember 5/20/19. Hard to believe it’s been 4 years. I forget why that setup failed. Hopefully nothing close to May 3.
I remember 5/20/19. Hard to believe it’s been 4 years. I forget why that setup failed. Hopefully nothing close to May 3.
Trey Greenwood from ConvectiveChronicles has a good video on what went wrong that day:
Hot of the press nadocast with an expanded 45% hatched, really underlining the extreme potential in place in southern Oklahoma.
Do you think Wichita could end up in a high risk?Based on everything I've seen overnight and early this morning, if I was the SPC forecaster on desk for the 13z outlook this morning, these are the slight expansions and the risk upgrade I would be making:
View attachment 26365
Consistent signal for violence in north-central Oklahoma starting around 4-5pm and then ramping up after 6-7pm (meaning the updrafts also get rooted at the sfc before the nocturnal inversion develops). Also seeing a concerning signal for a tail-end charlie on the southern side of the Kansas QLCS that may be a supercell with violent tornado potential on the southern end.... near or south of the Wichita metro, and probably starting a bit sooner than the OK threat.
Very deeply and gravely concerned by the consistent HRRR depiction of that lead supercell in the OK cluster putting down a mesoscale boundary for the following long-track supercells to ride along in a synoptic background environment that's already very supportive of long-lived EF4+ tornadoes...
I don't pay attention to Nadocast, what drives it, how it behaves, what it had for dinner last night, none of the things. The threat for long-track intense supercells will continue into the late evening, but they will eventually cluster/line out at some point over in eastern Oklahoma as they interact with each other more and more. The long-track violent tornado threat definitely continues deep into the evening though.The eastern extent of the 15/30% seems to have contracted a bit vs. 00Z. Is there a reason for this? What about overnight activity? @Fred Gossage
It's possible but those decisions are all about confidence, and unless there is a trend toward storm mode staying more discrete for longer in south central Kansas, the higher confidence in discrete long-track supercells is on the Oklahoma side of the state line. That doesn't mean there can't be a long-track EF4+ tornado in southern Kansas though, even if it stays Moderate there.Do you think Wichita could end up in a high risk?