Severe WX Severe Weather Threat May 10-12, 2023

[TH2002]

Was this TOR confirmed? Brandon Copic ad Vince Waelti were right in it and all around it and the worst we saw was heavy hail. I stopped watching when this cell began fading.

Confirmed by weather spotters according to the warning text.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Haven't seen anything too spectacular out of today. Wray or Campo this wasn't.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[JBishopwx]

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central
and southern Plains, where large hail and a few tornadoes can be
expected along with locally damaging winds. Isolated hail/damaging
winds are also possible across the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeastern states.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
beginning to eject northeast across northwestern NM as 500mb speed
max translates through the base of the trough. This speed max is
forecast to progress into the eastern TX Panhandle by 18z, then
gradually weaken as it shifts into northwestern OK by early evening.
Subsequent weakening is expected during the overnight hours as the
associated short-wave trough lifts into the mid-MO Valley by the end
of the period. In response to this feature, LLJ should be focused
across the High Plains from northwest TX into western KS early in
the period.

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing ahead of
the trough from the NM/TX border, north into western KS. As
large-scale ascent spreads into the High Plains this activity should
be maintained to some degree, likely continuing into the early part
of the day1 period. With more significant height falls forecast to
spread into the central High Plains, southern extent of this
activity should weaken/dissipate by mid day with only weak showers
and associated cloud debris expected to spread across portions of
the southern Plains. Of potentially more significance, cooling
mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates will spread across
eastern CO/western KS early in the period. Strong boundary-layer
heating is expected to contribute to steep low-level lapse rates
across eastern NM into southwest KS by 18z. As a result, renewed
thunderstorm development is expected fairly early in the period
within the exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet.
Supercells should evolve and lift north-northeast across the central
High Plains within a strongly sheared and modestly unstable
environment. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are possible with these
storms.

Farther southeast, negligible height changes will be noted across
OK/northwest TX. As a result, strong surface heating will prove
instrumental in convective development along the dryline by late
afternoon. If early-day convective debris is not that appreciable,
surface temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s across
northwest TX into extreme southwest OK by 22z. Convective
temperatures will be breached along the dryline with these readings
and isolated thunderstorms will likely develop soon thereafter.
While high-level flow is not forecast to be that strong, surface-6km
bulk shear will be strong and 0-3km SRH will be notable (300 m2/s2),
especially by early evening along the I-35 corridor where the LLJ is
expected to strengthen. NAM forecast sounding for OKC at 01z
exhibits 4100 J/kg MLCAPE with significant veering with height in
the lowest 5km. Any storms that develop near the dryline should
advance northeast into an environment favorable for maintaining
supercells. Very large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat
will be noted with this more isolated activity.

...Gulf States...

Low-latitude trough, currently located over the lower MS Valley, is
forecast to gradually weaken as it advances into the central Gulf
States. Despite expansive cloudiness ahead of this feature,
strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast along the FL Gulf Coast
into eastern MS. Scattered robust convection should evolve ahead of
the trough and isolated gusts/hail could be noted with the strongest
storms.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

What looks like a TDS (although warning was never changed to a TORR) near Stanley, LA about 20 minutes ago. In the marginal risk.

 

[TornadoFan]

There's already storms ongoing across Oklahoma this morning. I wonder how that's going to affect the environment.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Two tornado warnings in Louisiana right now and less than 2% tornado probs by the SPC forecasters. Short term model guidance and current observations disagree boldly.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

What they should have done instead of issuing an MD is issued a tornado watch.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[TH2002]

This could be a long day... the Oklahoma threat is still hours away too

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 211

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 212

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[TornadoFan]

Can't tell, but did those early morning storms in Oklahoma lay down an outflow boundary?

 

[OHWX97]

Already had a tornado touchdown on the CO/KS state line a little over 20 minutes ago. North of Kanorado, KS.

 

[OHWX97]

Can't tell, but did those early morning storms in Oklahoma lay down an outflow boundary?

Affirmative. Looks to be stalled out just south of the Red River. Actually had a decent little cell develop along it near Seymour, TX, but has since weakened.

It's also worth noting that despite being north of the OFB, substantial recovery is occurring in southern Oklahoma.

 

[TH2002]

Have a bunch of northwestern-moving mini supercells ongoing in the CO/KS/NE vicinity.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch coming.

 

[TornadoFan]

Affirmative. Looks to be stalled out just south of the Red River. Actually had a decent little cell develop along it near Seymour, TX, but has since weakened.

It's also worth noting that despite being north of the OFB, substantial recovery is occurring in southern Oklahoma.
View attachment 20305View attachment 20306

I'm rather surprised at how fast the airmass is recovering from this morning.

 

[OHWX97]

Tornado watch coming.

Pretty strong wording with that MCD. Specifically calling for strong, long lived tornadoes if storm mode remains favorable and a strong LLJ can materialize.

 

[Equus]

Probably weakening very soon but that is quite the bow echo in Mississippi at the moment

 

[TornadoFan]

Storms are starting to fire along the dryline.

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm west of Temple, OK trying to get that look.