Timhsv
Member
Just could be I think. Something not letting them explode as I would have suspected so far. But there's plenty of time
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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)
- Thread starter andyhb
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That mid-level cap did erode if the aircraft soundings near 21z were correct, but I think better height falls aloft still being well west and low-level dryline convergence still being way west have kept this from getting out of hand today. Storms from north OK into KS and MO have not had that problem because of low-level convergence near the outflow boundary and effective warm front. Storms in northwest TX have not had that lack of low-level convergence because low-level winds down there are backed SHARPLY southeast. Once the height falls move in this evening, you'll have a significant amount of forcing all at once at the same time you'll have deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary. That's going to mean quick evolution to a messy/linear mode almost from the jump when we get into the evening hours.
Timhsv
Member
Yes Sir, I agree of the need of more forcing.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
OUN doubling down but so far this has been quiet for central Oklahoma and the metro. Didn’t think I’d be staring at a barren Oklahoma warm sector at 5:47 today
Nope. CAM guidance across the board has been just shy of completely useless with this one.
TornadoFan
Member
Iowa Park Texas storm has heck of a hook on it.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Texas portion has been going off today
Here's the other piece of the puzzle. The initial 700mb cap 18-20z did erode, but additional capping built in around 800mb afterwards.
TornadoFan
Member
Looks like the southern part of the line in Texas is becoming more discrete.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Fred, is it just recency bias, or has there been a legitimate string of “below average” years of tornado outbreaks in Oklahoma over the past decade vs the 90s/2000s? And if there has, what is your guess as to the cause?
We were just talking about this in our team's private chat. If you look at tornado history the past several years, we haven't had any really bad tornadoes in the OUN CWA/OKC TV DMA since 2013. From the outside looking in, it would appear that the violent tornadoes decided to retire when Gary England did. They may have decided they didn't want to share on air time with David Payne.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Haha I grew up on 90s TWC storm stories and seems like every episode was a plains related Oklahoma event that always had Gary England in itWe were just talking about this in our team's private chat. If you look at tornado history the past several years, we haven't had any really bad tornadoes in the OUN CWA/OKC TV DMA since 2013. From the outside looking in, it would appear that the violent tornadoes decided to retire when Gary England did. They may have decided they didn't want to share on air time with David Payne.
We were just talking about this in our team's private chat. If you look at tornado history the past several years, we haven't had any really bad tornadoes in the OUN CWA/OKC TV DMA since 2013. From the outside looking in, it would appear that the violent tornadoes decided to retire when Gary England did. They may have decided they didn't want to share on air time with David Payne.
Proof that even Mother Nature was a fan of Gary England, alright!
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Admittedly I’m fuzzy on 1980s Oklahoma tornados but could just be cyclical periods and right now we are in a calm one for Oklahoma?
Thanksgivingbrown
Member
Are the storms in north Texas, entering into Oklahoma, starting to separate and become more discrete?
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Yes - all 3 look like they’re trying to grow hooks
Given how active Dixie Alley has been versus the Plains for the last several years, you may not realize it immediately, but the northern half of Alabama has had a similar streak of lack of violence. The HSV/BHM TV market areas haven't had a violent rated tornado since 2011 (Beauregard is south of there). If we don't have one before the end of May, that ties for the longest streak that specific part of Alabama has gone without an F4+ tornado since before Lincoln's presidency. I'm not going to sit here and lie and pretend that I know how much of it is simply cyclical variance, how much of it (if any) is related to a warming climate, etc., but I will say that I think next spring could be a good litmus test for it all... since we may be coming of a significant first-year La Nina again, coupled with a -PDO and a +TNI. We'll see. Time will tell...
SmokeEater
Member
OUN saying they expect the threat to ramp back up after 9pm local time for the OKC Metro.
Muwx
Member
Linear threat looks to be beginning in western Oklahoma. I think it’s safe to say that the PDS watch failed to live up to expectation.
Clancy
Member
Additional storms developing across TX.
