I thought that too until looking at some of the 06/12z runs...surface low is well north but is definitely some low level directional shear, not sure it is right and haven't had a chance to look closer to figure out why.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
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- severe weather
- Admin
- #142
For Sunday they keep moving the slight risk area to the east. What are your thoughts about the SPC moving it further east and upgrading a portion of the outlook to Enhanced?
I think there is still too much uncertainty right now to change an outlook. NAM may be overdoing instability, GFS may be underplaying...also surface low is quite elongated...I think that is what is leadling to the low level directional shear/critical angle...not sure that is right...but will need to be watched.
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Xenesthis
Guest
Any idea of output for critical angle at the moment? I am curious as to what the models are currently showing.
Pivitolweather.com
It's free, and you won't have to rely on other members to relay the model output to you every time there is a threat.
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Xenesthis
Guest
Appreciate the website thank you... just have to figure out how to navigate it lol
Kory
Member
Better SW flow at 500mb on the NAM. Overall, the trough looks more favorable for not a fully linear system, but will primarily be linear. That trough orientation gets better lapse rates. But this wouldn't be a threat where we get supercells all across the warm sector. It would likely be a few renegade cells that can get going ahead of a large QLCS.
GFS has a large MCS. Overall, the potential of a large damaging wind event is there given some of the low level shear...
GFS has a large MCS. Overall, the potential of a large damaging wind event is there given some of the low level shear...
Click on any point on the map to plot a sounding. This includes critical angle.
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Xenesthis
Guest
This is awesome thanks a bunch
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #150
Tornado warning near Troy, AL.
Also plenty of others storms that could kick off a warning too.
Also plenty of others storms that could kick off a warning too.
Kory
Member
Watch out Columbus....
- Admin
- #152
Another Tornado Warning this one in GA near Columbus and Phenix City
warneagle
Member
Confirmed tornado Pike County.
- Admin
- #154
They just extended the Tornado Warning into Bullock County.
CoreyandFrosty
Member
Is the cold front still back near Rome Ga where that storm is forming? Do you guys think Atlanta has a chance of seeing severe storms today?
Equus
Member
We are probably gonna wind up with far more tornado warnings and reports today than yesterday. SPC has not exactly been spot-on, lol.
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #157
I think we already have.
Blizzzzznado
Member
Looking at the last HRRR run, it appears most of the severe weather will be south of Atlanta.
CoreyandFrosty
Member
Will be interesting to watch. We have a few breaks in the clouds here. I think there is a chance that line forming back to the NW could have some severe storms later.
warneagle
Member
Strong signature between Talbotton and Junction City, GA. Thankfully that's a very sparsely populated area, but starting to get too close to home for comfort.
Edit: TDS.
Edit: TDS.