Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

[CheeselandSkies]

Really annoying that KVWX is down as by far the most dangerous-looking storm of the day so far heads towards it. According to an earlier radar status message on the NWS site, it was supposed to be repaired by noon today.

 

[warneagle]

The SPC outlook is verifying quite well on a day when they were open about low confidence. And when I questioned them; open mouth insert foot.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning including Fort Smith, AR. Might need a warning soon on the cell to its north as well. Finally getting some storms popping back along the front I guess.

 

[warneagle]

This is turning into quite a flash flooding event too.

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

I know there is talk about the SPC "blowing it" on the potential events lately that didn't materialize for various reasons. I just hope the SPC doesn't get discouraged by this but instead continues to forecast what potentially could happen and warns us rather than second guess themselves and go conservative in their forecasts! I'd rather them forecast a High risk and miss than forecast a marginal and it be a High risk event catching us off guard. They have a lot on their plate!

 

[Equus]

Looks like things eventually verified quite well except where they had a 10% TOR earlier (I think they dropped it to 5) as this seems to have been quite a day for large hail reports at least. Really, it seems to be the tornado threat they've overplayed both on Wednesday and on this event; wind and hail were pretty widespread both days, but the 15% hatched and the 10% tornado risks just failed to play through at all.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

One thing that does interest me is the fact that a good portion of our most severe events are proceeded by a lake wind advisory. I woke up this morning to see that one had been issued.

 

[JWard87]

Me senses very large hail possible. D/FW folks- may be another day just like 6/13/12.

 

[Equus]

Just casually checking on radar, have had a few good couplets out there today.

 

[warneagle]

Confirmed "large and extremely dangerous" tornado southwest of Canton, TX.

These storms in east Texas are moving into an environment with favorable thermodynamics and strong helicity values.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Confirmed "large and extremely dangerous" tornado southwest of Canton, TX.

These storms in east Texas are moving into an environment with favorable thermodynamics and strong helicity values.

Now there is another large one just east of Canton.

 

[Kory]

Reports of heavy damage with that aforementioned storm.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, there was an enormous TDS with that; it lingered after the couplet weakened so maybe the radar was catching the debris falling? Would not be surprised if it were a significant tornado.

I would love a radar in the Tyler, TX area.

 

[warneagle]

You can see some pretty significant damage in this video

 

[Lori]

Looks like all the vehicles in that car lot has damage....

 

[MichelleH]

I just pray it doesn't get really bad in Memphis tonight...my only son is right outside there in Millington in a wrestling match.

 

[SilentShadow87]

You can see some pretty significant damage in this video

Looking like EF2 damage to me, possibly EF3.

 

[warneagle]

Major flash flooding going on across MO.

 

[darkskys25]

HRRR really shows the line weakening as it enters al tomorrow. Cape is pretty meager. You guys think slight risk is still warranted for AL? Looks like some decent rains regardless.

Sent from my SM-G950U using TalkWeather mobile app

 

[Bama Ravens]

BMX has an excellent discussion about today/tonight's threat. Biggest issue is that models are all over the board, as far as timing.

Model inconsistencies seem to have really plaqued this severe weather season, such as the April 5th threat and now this one.