Severe Weather Threat 4/25-4/26, 2024 - (Thursday, Friday)

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I wasn’t sure about today anymore but with that moisture recovering and yesterday’s performance…uhm…do we have a second big day coming? Maybe
 

lake.effect

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More damage video from Elkhorn



The first part of the video shows, in my opinion, possible EF4 damage. A few well-built homes completely leveled to the foundation with some rubble still remaining. Certainly strong EF3 at the least. The first half of the video was taken over Arabian Drive. I verified this with Google Street View. The black circle indicates where the tornado crossed. Homes appear to be all well-built, standard suburban split levels:



Image 4-27-24 at 7.09 AM.jpeg
 
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Clancy

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Cameron Nixon does some incredible things, and this kind of knowledge will be the kind of thing to fundamentally transform our ways of predicting and warning for these monsters of mother nature. Additionally, so far I've heard of no fatalities yesterday, which hopefully stays that way, and would be great news.
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I know @CheeselandSkies said a few days ago they’d be chasing in NE/IA today. Pretty excited to see what they’ll report back with. Still can’t get over the Keota footage from last year.

I appreciate your faith in me...but yesterday was not my day. Played two (or three, if you count running away from one) different tornado-warned supercells in southwest Iowa which seemingly were always producing EXCEPT when I had a good view of the base. This GoPro frame grab at 0034 UTC (7:34 PM) which *may* contain a distant view of the tail end of the Creston tornado, as I was blasting north on US 169 near Arispe, was about as good as it got. This after being on the storm when it first went tornado-warned southwest of Bedford near the IA/MO line, and getting behind it in the stupid maze of unpaved roads between IA-148 and US 169.

GX010248MP419_38_08_09_edit.jpg

Of course, once I finally got a good view of the base north of US 34, the tornado had definitely dissipated. I caught the beginning of the next cycle east of 169 northeast of Lorimor noting a large bowl lowering with low-hanging scud tags, but with rapidly enroaching darkness (the video grab is backlight by lightning) I could not visually discern rotation, nor did it appear to plant anything on the ground while I had this view.

PXL_20240427_010127877.mp4.00_00_19_12.Still001.jpg

Seemingly surrounded by tornado-warned couplets and with darkness setting in, I called the chase and noped on out of there up to Winterset.
 
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A tornado was reported at 7:58 near Word of Life Church on US 169 south of Winterset; or west of East Peru, IA. This was about the time I finally caught up with the base north of Lorimor.

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That is very likely the remnant funnel (or perhaps still in progress but not fully condensed) on the right in the last two grabs. Same feature I was paralleling driving eastbound in the second image in my first post. Even so, it was nothing compared to what many other chasers saw and definitely no Keota for me.
 
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buckeye05

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So it appears the Elkhorn, NE tornado leveled a pretty large and expensive home near Prospect Hill Cemetery. I can't tell if it's actually slabbed or just separated from its sublfoor though. Here's a potential problem too...judging by Google maps, it's in a private gated community. Will the NWS survey team be able to do a survey on foot?
Screenshot 2024-04-28 045430.png
 

buckeye05

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Some more potentially violent damage in Nebraska. Problem is, I can't figure out where this drone video was taken. I believe it's somewhere along the Elkhorn/Bennington path but I'm not 100% sure.

In this first photo, we can see a modern home swept from its poured concrete walk-out basement foundation. The subfloor is gone, and homes of this type tend to be anchor bolted. There could be a few contextual discrepancies to nit-pick, namely the truck shifted but not thrown from the garage. However, this isn't a deal breaker imo, because it may very well have gotten stuck on the edge of the foundation in a way made it hard for the wind to "grab" it. The wood-frame walkout basement wall seems to have been blown out intact too. In all though, there could be enough here for minimal EF4.
waverlydamage2.png

Violent looking debris pattern from a destroyed home. Some wind-rowing was evident in this area.
Screenshot 2024-04-28 075806.png

Now this last one I'm not sure what to make of. It looks extremely impressive at first glance, and seems to show a walkout basement foundation home that has been so thoroughly obliterated that there is no discernable debris pattern. Thing is, there's something about it that makes me think it might actually be a very large outbuilding/garage/barn with a basement. However, the drone video shows a mailbox at the end of the driveway, which may imply it was a residence. I can't find it on a map to confirm either way though. What do you guys think?
Waverly5.png
 
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andyhb

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Some more potentially violent damage in Nebraska. Problem is, I can't figure out where this drone video was taken. I believe it's somewhere along the Elkhorn/Bennington path but I'm not 100% sure.

In this first photo, we can see a modern home swept from its poured concrete walk-out basement foundation. The subfloor is gone, and homes of this type tend to be anchor bolted. There could be a few contextual discrepancies to nit-pick, namely the truck shifted but not thrown from the garage. However, this isn't a deal breaker imo, because it may very well have gotten stuck on the edge of the foundation in a way made it hard for the wind to "grab" it. The wood-frame walkout basement wall seems to have been blown out intact too. In all though, there could be enough here for minimal EF4.
View attachment 26035

Violent looking debris pattern from a destroyed home. Some wind-rowing was evident in this area.
View attachment 26036

Now this last one I'm not sure what to make of. It looks extremely impressive at first glance, and seems to show a walkout basement foundation home that has been so thoroughly obliterated that there is no discernable debris pattern. Thing is, there's something about it that makes me think it might actually be a very large outbuilding/garage/barn with a basement. However, the drone video shows a mailbox at the end of the driveway, which may imply it was a residence. I can't find it on a map to confirm either way though. What do you guys think?
View attachment 26037
Is there a video of this? This damage looks easily into the EF4 range.
 

Maxis_s

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Violent looking debris pattern from a destroyed home. Some wind-rowing was evident in this area.
Holy crap! I've NEVER seen wind-rowing like that. Easily an EF-4 tornado, I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if it reached EF-5 windspeeds along its life.
 

buckeye05

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DOW found winds of ~224 mph in the Harlan IA tornado on Friday.

At this point I'm convinced that the old scale had the more accurate wind speed estimates. The discrepancy between the estimates given in damage surveys and actual readings is just worlds apart. This was an EF5 by the definition of the current scale in terms of wind speeds, but I doubt there was any damage that actually meets that criteria.
 
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