Severe Weather Threat 4/25-4/26, 2024 - (Thursday, Friday)

[jiharris0220]

Speaking of tomorrow, hrrr has stayed consistent in showing a discrete/semi discrete mode. With a far better moisture
profile and LFCs that actually stay below 850mb this time.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I just noticed this haha

 

[jiharris0220]

For real I have no idea what you guys are on about. It was a conditional isolated strong tornado day with a relatively small window for action that downtrended a bit a bit as it approached. No big shocker here, and we’ve still got an extended period of setups with daily tornado threats to get through, so relax.

I agree but I’m confused on who is this directed too? I don’t think anyone on here expected anything too significant was gonna happen today.

 

[lake.effect]

00Z HRRR has an ominous look for the KC to Omaha corridor tomorrow. What's more, it wants to fire discrete cells down south for the conditional KS/OK/TX threat.

 

[buckeye05]

I agree but I’m confused on who is this directed too? I don’t think anyone on here expected anything too significant was gonna happen today.

Mainly that stormtrack post rather than on here. I personally don’t think it was a good take.

Anyway, my eyes are on the next two days, which I’m considerably more interested in.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Mainly that stormtrack post rather than on here. I personally don’t think it was a good take.

Anyway, my eyes are on the next two days, which I’m considerably more interested in.

I don’t chase so I just lurk over there. But I liked the melodramatic tone of that post because Those guys over there are desperate to chase something lol

 

[TornadoFan]

HRRR is at it again.

 

[Muwx]

HRRR is at it again.

It’s may 4, 2003 all over again

 

[KCweatherboy]

It’s may 4, 2003 all over again

Please no. That's the closest I've ever been to a tornado, let alone an F4 monster. If it could go like 30 miles further north in between KC and St. Joseph that'd be great.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I agree but I’m confused on who is this directed too? I don’t think anyone on here expected anything too significant was gonna happen today.

This was Chase day? I didn't even have my armchair ready.

I am slacking.

 

[KCweatherboy]

Cherry-picked sounding from the 0z HRRR about 50 miles south of Topeka, KS. Obviously, collectively we've found crazier soundings on this forum, but what stands out to me is the top SARS analog. For those that don't know, May 20th, 1957 was the Ruskin Heights F5 tornado that impacted this area, and having that analog pop up in the same area is slightly concerning. Additionally, the timing is quite similar as well given the analog is at 21z, this sounding was pulled at 22z, and the actual tornado touched down at roughly 23z.

 

[lake.effect]

Pretty strong wording from the SPC for an enhanced risk (both D1 and D2).
Cams are pretty much in agreement on discrete supercell development in the Omaha - Topeka - KC triangle this afternoon and the HRRR really blows up the southern threat with some massive kidney beans.

Wouldn't at all be surprised to see an upgrade to Moderate for both D1 and D2 in later outlooks.

 

[rdtony]

View attachment 25598

Cherry-picked sounding from the 0z HRRR about 50 miles south of Topeka, KS. Obviously, collectively we've found crazier soundings on this forum, but what stands out to me is the top SARS analog. For those that don't know, May 20th, 1957 was the Ruskin Heights F5 tornado that impacted this area, and having that analog pop up in the same area is slightly concerning. Additionally, the timing is quite similar as well given the analog is at 21z, this sounding was pulled at 22z, and the actual tornado touched down at roughly 23z.

Quite the hockey stick on the wind shear profile!

 

[jiharris0220]

Hrrr unsurprisingly even at this range being wishy washy with storm coverage today.
Meanwhile the rrfsa at least knows how to stay consistent and has cells firing way down south in Oklahoma.

Guess we’ll see which is the better model today for this event.

 

[cincywx]

early morning obs and guidance have tempered today's threat a bit so far.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST
MO/SOUTHWEST IA...

..SUMMARY

A FEW TORNADOES, INCLUDING A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES, ISOLATED
VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 2 INCH DIAMETER) AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH
INTO ARKANSAS, EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

..MID MO VALLEY TO TX THROUGH TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING WITH A CYCLONE IN
NORTHERN KS, A TRAILING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT INTO WESTERN OK, AND
THE EAST EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR DEMARCATED BY A WARM FRONT FROM
EASTERN OK INTO EASTERN KS. AN ONGOING QLCS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
DAMAGE AND TORNADO REPORTS IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OK NEAR THE WARM
FRONT, WITH AN AREA OF RAIN-COOLED/OVERTURNED IN OK IN THE WAKE OF
THESE STORMS. FARTHER NORTH, AN UNDISTURBED PORTION OF THE WARM
SECTOR EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

THE EASTERN OK CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD
WESTERN AR, WITH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO. THE OK/AR PORTION OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ACCESS TO THE SURFACE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY, WHERE A MIX OF BOWING SEGMENTS OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL HAZARDS.

THE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL SLOW THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM
SECTOR, AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE OVERTURNED AIRMASS IN OK WILL
POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE BREADTH AND QUALITY OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY,
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING IN NORTHEAST
KS/SOUTHEAST NE AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA.
MLCAPE AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG, BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S, AND SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE (EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT, AND EFFECTIVE
SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES WITH ANY PERSISTENT, SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED
VERY LARGE HAIL (IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER) WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FARTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO TX, IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY A WEAK CAP, SO THE SLGT HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOME
TO THE SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
TODAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING AS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES COMMENCE AND THE REMNANT DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
WEST.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 04/26/2024

 

[lake.effect]

early morning obs and guidance have tempered today's threat a bit so far.

Seems like the SPC is playing it safe. I think moisture return and depth will be more than sufficient in the hatched area this afternoon. Still wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MOD.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Seems like the SPC is playing it safe. I think moisture return and depth will be more than sufficient in the hatched area this afternoon. Still wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MOD.

At this juncture I don’t think they have enough confidence to upgrade to a MOD later. Too many details are still outstanding.

 

[buckeye05]

Eh I think MOD is a stretch. My concern is that the precip in the Kansas City area seems to have a pretty pronounced northward movement to it and is taking its sweet time getting east.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Eh I think MOD is a stretch. My concern is that the precip in the Kansas City area seems to have a pretty pronounced northward movement to it and is taking its sweet time getting east.

Could have some action around the surface low where vorticity is stronger. The KC area has good upper level support but that blob of showers nearby and weakening lapse rates takes it out of play almost completely IMO.

 

[jiharris0220]

Eh I think MOD is a stretch. My concern is that the precip in the Kansas City area seems to have a pretty pronounced northward movement to it and is taking its sweet time getting east.

Models have it clearing out of central Missouri (precip wise) by 12pm. So I guess we’ll see if that’ll verify or not.