Severe weather Feb 10-13th

[SmokeEater]

Only damage reports with that are power lines down near Onalaska. Seems brief.

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[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch coming for Louisiana.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 128

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Clancy]

New D2 features an expansion to the 5% tornado risk.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the
Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.

...Southeastern States...
A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from
the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by
evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough
approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+
kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area
by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause
across the Appalachians.

At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into
eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the
Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints
will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day,
and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon.
Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but
low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor.

Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep,
with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest
instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL
Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist.

Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and
perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few
supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain
and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated
fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based
potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible
south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into
central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may
favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds.

..Jewell.. 02/11/2024

 

[Clancy]

 

[Clancy]

 

[Justin Hindman]

In route to southwest Mississippi to chase

 

[Flurry]

In route to southwest Mississippi to chase

Stay safe!!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hefty instability profile out there

 

[Rapideswx]

Getting some heavy rainfall right now. Storm mode looks messy in my area at the moment.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

KPOE is smack dab in the middle of the western end of the watch, in the ideal spot to catch the storms developing if only it was working. Whose bright idea was this?

 

[Rapideswx]

Yeah pretty bad timing... I heard that they are doing some repairs.

 

[Clancy]

18Z HRRR depicts an on-and-off all-day threat for tomorrow, instead of concentrated periods as suggested earlier. Obviously makes overcrowding a more likely fail mode, but who knows how it'll pan out. UH run max below.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning near Warren Texas

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Clancy]

This storm in SW AL ought to be watched very closely.

Edit: it is now SVR-warned, with tor. possible tag.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
200 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Washington County in southwestern Alabama...
Northern Clarke County in southwestern Alabama...
Southwestern Wilcox County in south central Alabama...

* Until 245 PM CST.

* At 200 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Saint Stephens, or 13 miles northwest of Jackson, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Thomasville, Grove Hill, Saint Stephens, Pine Hill, and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 8758 3184 8740 3183 8743 3183 8750
3181 8750 3181 8752 3178 8752 3151 8809
3166 8820 3170 8814 3170 8809 3173 8809
3199 8769 3200 8763 3203 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 236DEG 40KT 3163 8807

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado warning for Fort Polk, LA.

 

[Clancy]

Great day for KPOE to be under maintenance.

 

[TornadoFan]

LIX is down as well

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This storm in SW AL ought to be watched very closely.
View attachment 23860

 

[Rapideswx]

Was in the warm sector earlier but cooled down to 59F at my location following heavy t-storm. Warm front still close by to my south. Another storm near me.