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Tonight looks bonkers for Texas lol.
Tonight looks bonkers for Texas lol.
On one hand, the CAMs are depicting more-or-less constant convection from Sunday night into Monday evening, with a severe threat during pretty much all of it. On the other hand, I have to wonder if that will zap energy and moisture from the area. Curiously, both instability and moisture are plentiful on the models throughout the entire period, though how well they are really handling that aspect of the parameter space, I am unsure.Lol I know it's the FV3 but it looks like April 27th on crack with all the supercells for Sunday into monday. Good grief get off the rocker FV3 , I wish I could just share the gif of your 30 through 60 but my phone is being weird.
*Here we go
View attachment 23820
Seems like that Sunday afternoon rain might set up a boundary on the 18Z HRRR.No way a outflow boundary doesn't lay down somewhere in south south central Alabama with the 18z HRRR run.
Also the 18z HRRR looks like it has a meso low developing aiding in windfields for Sunday evening in Alabama. Big ole yikes.
*Less updraft swaths but a pretty good environment and shows what looks like supercells firing over a wide area.
Man I'm not gunna have the stamina to keep up with it all if this is true haha.18Z HRRR says early morning squall, followed by some clearing and mixed-mode convection from mid-morning into the early afternoon. The window between rounds allows for ample atmospheric recovery, per this run.
View attachment 23826
That squall line is nasty. If I were SPC, I would extend the Slight Risk northward more into North MS (particularly Northeast MS) adding a 30% damaging wind threat (possibly SIG hatch) along with a 5% tornado probability.18Z HRRR says early morning squall, followed by some clearing and mixed-mode convection from mid-morning into the early afternoon. The window between rounds allows for ample atmospheric recovery, per this run.
View attachment 23826
PUT MY GAME BACK ON!!!! LOL!Man I'm not gunna have the stamina to keep up with it all if this is true haha.
No way the superbowl is gunna be aired in Alabama tomorrow lol. I feel like we have a big day tommorow
A possible saving grace with the squall line is it may be mostly elevated, so that could keep the tornado and wind threat limited somewhat, but if it rides the boundary right it may exceed expectations.That squall line is nasty. If I were SPC, I would extend the Slight Risk northward more into North MS (particularly Northeast MS) adding a 30% damaging wind threat (possibly SIG hatch) along with a 5% tornado probability.
If I were a TV meteorologist my social media DMs would be locked down like Fort Knox tomorrow lolPUT MY GAME BACK ON!!!! LOL!