Clancy
Member
Slight Risk introduced across parts of far southern KY, TN, AL and GA for winds and hail.
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and
northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a
tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across
portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina
Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of
west Texas.
...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia...
A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast
Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a
localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur
along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during
the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also
reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization
(2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z
observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest
low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that
embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop,
accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional
short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780.
...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas...
Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering
surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal
heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s
F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid
60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon.
Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with
slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly
pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible
across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging
gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or
two could occur.