Winter WX January 29-30 Southeast Event

[Bama Ravens]

I bet models are overdoing the post-snow temps. I don't think they will get quite that high with snow on the ground unless the sun really comes out.

 

[Richardjacks]

I bet models are overdoing the post-snow temps. I don't think they will get quite that high with snow on the ground unless the sun really comes out.

yes, if the snow forecast is right, the temps aint right

 

[skelly]

Might be a better question following the event depending on what happens, but we still seem to be in a stormy pattern with significant rains weekly. An effect of El Niño I presume. Could El Niño effects be enhancing this event?

 

[Kory]

Might be a better question following the event depending on what happens, but we still seem to be in a stormy pattern with significant rains weekly. An effect of El Niño I presume. Could El Niño effects be enhancing this event?

I certainly think the subtropical jet is enhancing the moisture content of the system. Nearly every system we've had this year has trended up in QPF. This has done the same.

 

[skelly]

I certainly think the subtropical jet is enhancing the moisture content of the system. Nearly every system we've had this year has trended up in QPF. This has done the same.

Thanks! It seems to have been taken into account with forecasts of most the rainmakers this season but not wth this system until this close in so made me wonder.

 

[Daryl]

 

[barcncpt44]

With the way the warnings are set up, i'm a little skeptical about Anniston only being under a advisory. This will give some a false sense of alarm.

 

[darkskys25]

How cold it is at the surface is getting me a little concerned. Models were much slower with the precip and once changeover occurred temps were at or below freezing. Some of these short range models are showing snow with surface temps in the upper 30s and then only do we hit or go below freezing several hours after the precip is gone. If this were true it would have to snow very hard to get accumulations. Now let's say that happens and we still get accumulations as projected then you have rising temps starting mid morning...maybe mid to upper 30s when just 36hrs ago you had days and days of model data showing temps staying below freezing or even falling into the 20s throughout the day. To me there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. Not in regard to snow but the impacts. Im confident we see snow but does the sun and temps evap away fairly quickly? What do yall think?

 

[skelly]

How cold it is at the surface is getting me a little concerned. Models were much slower with the precip and once changeover occurred temps were at or below freezing. Some of these short range models are showing snow with surface temps in the upper 30s and then only do we hit or go below freezing several hours after the precip is gone. If this were true it would have to snow very hard to get accumulations. Now let's say that happens and we still get accumulations as projected then you have rising temps starting mid morning...maybe mid to upper 30s when just 36hrs ago you had days and days of model data showing temps staying below freezing or even falling into the 20s throughout the day. To me there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. Not in regard to snow but the impacts. Im confident we see snow but does the sun and temps evap away fairly quickly? What do yall think?

Don’t panic either way. Just stay tuned and be prepared and be careful.

 

[MattW]

The main 6z NAM is still being weird with the precip around Atlanta. The high res NAM is more in line with the GFS in terms of snow totals. But still looking like right at an inch for Atlanta with higher amounts to the NW. An inch really isn't much, but with the temps plunging throughout the day, I really am worried about the roads. As what does fall gets packed down and frozen, that would make for hazardous conditions.

 

[Kory]

Totals look to be decreasing for Northern AL/ Southern TN...increasing for the I-20/59 corridor per overnight and early morning guidance.

 

[Jacob]

12z NAM would be a big fat bust across most of Alabama.

 

[Kory]

12z NAM would be a big fat bust across most of Alabama.

Yep...too slow with surface temps dropping enough.

 

[Kory]

I'll add...NAM goes against all other mesoscale guidance at the moment.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Everything got hyped, winter storm warning gets issued, things fall apart for Alabama.

I don’t know why I pay attention to this stuff.

 

[Jacob]

Everything got hyped, winter storm warning gets issued, things fall apart for Alabama.

I don’t know why I pay attention to this stuff.

I guess I missed where this event had already taken place.

 

[Kory]

I'll add...NAM goes against all other mesoscale guidance at the moment.

To reiterate. The more 12z guidance rolls in, the more the NAM looks out to lunch.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I guess I missed where this event had already taken place.

I know, but I wanted to be first in line to jump off the cliff

 

[darkskys25]

Everything got hyped, winter storm warning gets issued, things fall apart for Alabama.

I don’t know why I pay attention to this stuff.

I never saw or felt that this got overhyped. It's always been a quick hitter with widespread 1 to 2 inches. The issue is the air temps are much warmer. I mean if its 39 and snowing that's going to limit accumulations especially since its moving so quickly. I've seen this same scenario before and it didn't work out well. A bust potential is always on the table for al winter weather. But also there are always surprises. Just look to last year for example. This is just going to be a wait and see thing. But if it's cold air chasing moisture again well that's going to suck.

 

[skelly]

Well this warmer air shouldn’t be drier but we’ll see how it mixes up.