January 27th deep south severe wx

[Clancy]

Some CAMs depicting a sneaky low-topped supercell threat after that big rain shield for Saturday for a good portion of AL. SPC seems to go with that as well. Setups like this can sometimes spit out some surprises, even when parameters appear only marginally favorable, but can of course also be non-events.

In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath
weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough
moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon
destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the
degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly
cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to
eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur
from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry
slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based
instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level
hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would
favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells,
before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging
cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity
during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate
destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be
possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with
eastern extent into GA.

..Grams.. 01/26/2024

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Some CAMs depicting a sneaky low-topped supercell threat after that big rain shield for Saturday for a good portion of AL. SPC seems to go with that as well. Setups like this can sometimes spit out some surprises, even when parameters appear only marginally favorable, but can of course also be non-events.

Dont get me too excited or I won't sleep tonight in anticipation of trying to chase tommorow hahah.

I think there's supposed to be a robust eml, if that comes in less strong and the instability is on point. It'll be mini supercell printer tommorow

 

[Clancy]

Dont get me too excited or I won't sleep tonight in anticipation of trying to chase tommorow hahah.

I think there's supposed to be a robust eml, if that comes in less strong and the instability is on point. It'll be mini supercell printer tommorow

A bit of a crapshoot for now confidence-wise so will probably be wisest to wait until tomorrow morning and see what actual obs say.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z WRF runs have a stout line with it not really disappating. I really don't see how instability is going to build back in lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[mbrewer]

Saturday reminds me a little bit of the setup on January 21, 2010. After earlier convection rolled through, it later produced some low-topped rotating supercells with a couple of tornadoes, one being the downtown Huntsville tornado that was widely videoed and photographed. These often don't produce, but it occasionally happens.

 

[Clancy]

Updated D2 is pretty much the same disco-wise, but low-end tornado probs expanded a bit NE-ward.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Man if the 15z rap just had the parameters mesh a little better it would be a hayday tommorow. The best shear axis is just to the east of the best instability axis. But the rain shield is also a wrench in the system.

Tommorow will be interesting especially if model guidance pushes for the line across south Alabama to dissipate sooner and cloud cover is less abundant.

Definitely not sleeping on the potential tommorow. I don't want a January 2023 to happen and I'm caught barefooted on a Saturday!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

That's some hefty 3CAPE in that sounding.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That's some hefty 3CAPE in that sounding.

Yeah, if that holds up I could maybe see some storms like we had in the Chicago area last July 12th. However I think there was more SRH on that day. The storms were low-topped, small, produced relatively little lightning, and essentially were non-severe apart from the tornado production.

 

[Clancy]

Yeah, if that holds up I could maybe see some storms like we had in the Chicago metro last July 12th. However I think there was more SRH on that day. The storms were low-topped, small, produced relatively little lightning, and essentially were non-severe apart from the tornado production.

View attachment 23655

Low-topped supercell days tend to be super hit or miss; super interesting scenarios parameter-wise. The really wacky setup on New Year's Eve in 2021 gave me my closest call with a tornado since I can remember.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, if that holds up I could maybe see some storms like we had in the Chicago area last July 12th. However I think there was more SRH on that day. The storms were low-topped, small, produced relatively little lightning, and essentially were non-severe apart from the tornado production.

View attachment 23655

Awesome picture! Maybe I can get a good picture of a wall cloud or something tommorow.

I'm going to go on my first tornado chase tommorow if things look good tomorrow morning. It'll be a milestone for me, in my love for weather. I don't often get chances to storm chase lol

 

[Clancy]

18Z HRRR maximizes threat over Central AL around 21-22Z. Radar presentation is pretty clean-looking. A bit of contamination on the sounding but a good representation of the verall environment. Somewhat limited low-level wind speeds could be a limiting factor, however.

 

[mbrewer]

Awesome picture! Maybe I can get a good picture of a wall cloud or something tommorow.

I'm going to go on my first tornado chase tommorow if things look good tomorrow morning. It'll be a milestone for me, in my love for weather. I don't often get chances to storm chase lol

Even if the setup is marginal (which it probably will be), I would still go chasing if it is your first time, as it would be a good system to gain valuable experience with your decision making. If any mesos do develop, with increasing winds with height and fairly dry mid-levels there really shouldn't be a ton of rain wrapping around or obscuring views. Leaves being off will help with visibility as well.

Of course the most dangerous part with chasing is distracted driving. Pull off when needed to look at things. Along with that I wouldn't recommend going solo, but if that's your only option then give yourself more margin for error. Oh, and have fun!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Mobile wx office thinks it'll be pretty busy tomorrow morning

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That is one heck of a QCLS on the 22z hrrr. I'm having such a hard time believing any quality moisture will build in behind the QCLS.

Would not be surprised for a expansion of the risk area in the mobile jurisdiction or a possible small enchaned

 

[Clancy]

That is one heck of a QCLS on the 22z hrrr. I'm having such a hard time believing any quality moisture will build in behind the QCLS.

Would not be surprised for a expansion of the risk area in the mobile jurisdiction or a possible small enchaned

Seems like yet another setup where the margin between noteworthy activity and rain showers is pretty thin.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like yet another setup where the margin between noteworthy activity and rain showers is pretty thin.

I think it's a definite that atleast the mobile jurisdiction will see some action. The 23z hrrr has some nasty swaths lol .

I'll be up bright and early for that