Hurricane Hurricane Michael

[WesL]

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[Weatherphreak]

Good news based on its current path the worst of the landfall would occur over a reasonably unpopulated area between Panama City and Mexico beach/port St. Joe. A track further west could be pretty costly due to the development from Destin to PCB. Thankfully it shouldn’t linger too long so mass flooding shouldn’t be as big an issue as Florence.

 

[warneagle]

Good news based on its current path the worst of the landfall would occur over a reasonably unpopulated area between Panama City and Mexico beach/port St. Joe. A track further west could be pretty costly due to the development from Destin to PCB. Thankfully it shouldn’t linger too long so mass flooding shouldn’t be as big an issue as Florence.

It's not as populated but that part of the Florida coast in the Big Bend area is very vulnerable to storm surge.

 

[Blountwolf]

This storm is large - 500 miles wide, give or take. I think we should expect some surge on the west coast of the peninsula, as well as some inland flooding in the peninsula if it sets up bands there as it makes its way north.

 

[WesL]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

 

[TuckerTerry]

So what do y'all see that makes you believe in a more westerly track?

 

[Blountwolf]

It's not as populated but that part of the Florida coast in the Big Bend area is very vulnerable to storm surge.

Indeed. Here's the SLOSH output for a CAT3 in the area.

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

 

[Kory]

Wow the Euro is much faster. Puts a lot more of the FL Panhandle in play...

Faster = further North and West before the turn.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah I was looking at the SLOSH earlier when I posted that, those are Opal-level impacts in an area that is probably even more vulnerable than the western panhandle, lower population aside.

 

[WesL]

Mandatory evacuation orders for Panama City Beach starting tomorrow for Zones A, B and C according to Panama City News Herald

http://www.newsherald.com/news/2018...red-michael-eyes-panhandle-as-major-hurricane

 

[akt1985]

Hurricane Warning now from the Alabama/Florida border to the Suwanee River. Hurricane watch for the Alabama Gulf Coast.

 

[Beer Belly]

FSU already announced it is closing.

 

[Evan]

On satellite Michael looks like he might be getting ready to really get going. I think the chance of some fairly rapid and significant intensification tonight is medium-high to high.

 

[akt1985]

On satellite Michael looks like he might be getting ready to really get going. I think the chance of some fairly rapid and significant intensification tonight is medium-high to high.

Has the eye finally closed off?

 

[WesL]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

 

[Mike S]

Also from the discussion......

Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night.

 

[Timhsv]

Anyone have info of "when" Alabama EMA would issue Contra Flow for I-65 and for where landfall would have to be in order to do so? Does it require a State Of Emergency as well?
Thanks

 

[akt1985]

According to the 4 A.M. advisory, the central pressure in Michael has risen a couple of millibars from 6 hours ago. Is this pressure rise temporary?

 

[Jacob]

According to the 4 A.M. advisory, the central pressure in Michael has risen a couple of millibars from 6 hours ago. Is this pressure rise temporary?

Most likely. It looks like it was fighting some dry air overnight, but in the last hour it looks to be getting better organized.

 

[Mike S]

100mph Cat 2 at the latest advisory