Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

[Evan]

Yes i was. (sorry for the delay)

And were you using the Charleston radar? I believe the issue has something to do with Level 2/Level 3 data. I noticed that the NOAA and RadarScope Pro feed on Radarscope gave me a similar view to your GRLevel3 feed. However, my feed from Allisonhouse shows much more coverage. I didn't get a chance to check Gr2Analyst versus GRLevel3 yet, but I believe it is the same.

 

[bwalk]

Many people have asked why Dorian has moved so slowly during much/most of its relatively long-lived existence (at least for a hurricane).

This article gives an explanation for it, calling Dorian's movement speed as "unprecedented' in its slowness.


Dorian isn't moving because the upper atmosphere is too calm
What's happening — or more aptly, not happening with Hurricane Dorian is pretty unprecedented.

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/n...vlwkzigpG9HhZP3OPe88kI-lyvW47qwERttUeDWMB9g9g

 

[Kory]

 

[warneagle]

Nothing good is going to come out of hurricane forecasting being made into a political issue. I can't believe that this has gotten dragged out to this point.

 

[Kory]

NOAA just set a very, very bad precedent.

 

[Richardjacks]

NOAA just set a very, very bad precedent.

I can't imagine what kind of pressure came from the top to cause someone to write this...just not normal.

 

[warneagle]

It just calls into question the objectivity of the agency and is going to undermine public trust regardless of where you fall politically when you see them jump into such a petty squabble.

 

[warneagle]

looks like Dorian could reach Nova Scotia at or close to Cat 1 strength. I'm not sure how many hurricane landfalls Canada has had.

 

[bjdeming]

looks like Dorian could reach Nova Scotia at or close to Cat 1 strength. I'm not sure how many hurricane landfalls Canada has had.

Per the latest CHC discussion (emphasis added):

The ecmwf/gfs deterministic models indicate a baroclinic
intensification in the trough moving the system east, including
strong upper level divergence. It will also be over warm waters until
it gets well into the Scotian shelf. Nhc suggests intensification
before the et transition starts prior to making landfall near Halifax
as a strong category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane. Et is
expected to continue until the storm moves into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence while remaining at hurricane strengh until it passes
Northern Newfoundland.

!!!

It will probably become a nasty extratropical cyclone, too.

 

[Mike S]

NOAA/BMX/Trump discussion needs to remain in the political thread. Thanks.

 

[WesL]

Wow!

 

[warneagle]

Looks like Dorian will still be at Cat 2 strength when it makes landfall in Nova Scotia.

 

[WesL]

Hurricane eh?

 

[akt1985]

Dorian is now post tropical per the latest NHC Advisory.

 

[warneagle]

Nova Scotia is still about to get hit with 100 mph winds, tropical or not. At least the forward speed has increased a lot.

 

[bjdeming]

Well, not "good," of course, but it gives me some perspective. The Mudd was much less populated pre-Dorian. Thanks -- that contrast with 2015 shook me up some.

I've been wrong before - wish I wasn't about this, but the news about The Mudd and Pigeon Peas, while still vague, is not good.

Meanwhile, this post-tropical storm just won't quit -- almost half a million people in Canada without power, though, fortunately, I haven't seen any casualties reported yet.

 

[Kory]

If this is anywhere near accurate, an unprecedented disaster. This could eclipse both Katrina's death toll and Maria's revised death toll.

 

[Kory]

The missing person's list is at 5,041 last I checked. This is a humanitarian disaster.

 

[David in SW Blount]

If the death toll in the Bahamas is really in the 3-5,000 range, then that is nearly 1% or more of the entire population of their country. That would be the equivalent of the United States losing over 3 million people.

 

[David in SW Blount]

P.S. The two affected areas have a combined population of 68,000. Possibly over 5% of the population of Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands have been killed. Staggering.