Severe WX February 8th - 12th deep south severe threat.

[UncleJuJu98]

06z euro is nasty for Mississippi and Alabama

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sounding from central Mississippi on the GFS. It may need to be considered that a lot of convection could just be broken and messy. 00z euro shows it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Model differences and instability questions are what's withholding the SPC from putting a risk area of the south for day 5. According to there write up.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Waiting on the 12z euro to come in, the candian and 00z euro present a option of significant severe. Especially with the 12z candian.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Not taking the candian as gospel but it's solution could be semi expectant of what the previous event that turned coastal was. Deep low. Favorable 500mb. Not the same insane shear but definitely there's a abundance. Instability is a question. But Canadian and euro have a rather broad but not a substantial warm sector .

Very broad based 500mb trough with a deep low on the candian. This solution usually spells trouble for the south. @CheeselandSkies mentioned this earlier in the thread. Not what you want to see if a broad warm sector develops. Even if it's just 800-1400j.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Waiting on the 12z euro to come in, the candian and 00z euro present a option of significant severe. Especially with the 12z candian.

never take cmc serious

 

[Timhsv]

I would think it's about to get active again.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

never take cmc serious

Lol I know, I mentioned in my post after that, that it's not gospel lol, I always like to take a look at multiple models though. Which in this case a lot of them are coming into agreement now to a relatively similar solution as what the candian shows.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

until we start to see a much larger healthier warm sector getting further north, these threats look isoalted at very best to me. we need a much deeper better moisture return from gulf and tap into some caribbean moisture also

 

[UncleJuJu98]

until we start to see a much larger healthier warm sector getting further north, these threats look isoalted at very best to me. we need a much deeper better moisture return from gulf and tap into some caribbean moisture also

Not so sure about it being isolated, I mean at this point it's best to expect that; but this system needs some more consistency. I think what we are seeing will be sufficient. that 800-1400j range is what I look for in the winter and missippi based on guidance today from models shows it there; timing will play a key role in if this system will get enough mositure. Extremely hard pressed to get any Caribbean moisture into the south unless it's s super rare anomaly event.

But in general moisture will be the potentially biggest limiting factor for this event .

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wait is the cmc the candian model???

All the different models get confusing lol, for some reason I was thinking the ukmet was candian but that's not the case lol I guess it is the cmc. I should've taken the hint from uk in the name.

GDPS is Canadian as well.

Though this was interesting a study back in 2020 on the GFS/ euro / and CMC. CMC beat out the GFS lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z euro...

Playing a dangerous game, with mid 60s dewpoints over missippi and western half of Alabama.

LUCKILY, 850 mb vertical vorticity doesn't indicate many having and substantial updrafts, but something that has to be watched.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Here is what SPC has to say about it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z nam has the system it looks like generally coming through into missippi and West Alabama around peak heating if keeps chugging east at the same pace. It's only in east Texas and Arkansas at the end of the run.

Nam could put it in a favorable slot for the Mississippi delta to West Alabama with the low possibly deeping and going negative tilt.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z nam is a lot more favorable for a semi robust event for the twin states I'f the pieces come together. Just for comparison at midnight here's the dewpoints over missippi from the NAM to the GFS. Quicker moisture buildup in the warm sector from the NAM.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z GFS and 18z nam now have better instability in the atmosphere. 850mb theta e has risen quite a bit from earlier model runs. I guess the globals thought the wedge had more influence?
Overall better buildup in missippi ahead of the shortwave/ low in east oklahoma.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, now GFS has isolated convection popping northeast of the pinch point on the 500mb trough.

Pretty sneaky threat could pop off, if moisture gets right.

Netrual tilt going negative tilt at around peak heating. when the troughs digs down and squeezes the flow and then starts to release as it goes negative and ejects ; it'll spit some isolated storms at the expanding point.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Waiting on the 00z nam patiently... I could see a risk outline for missippi possibly in the next update by SPC.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nothing big or noteworthy on the new nam run, although it does start dropping pressure rapidly sooner than the globals.

Like I said before just a sneaky event. Could pop off.

Just for notes the nam at the end of the run has the closed low at around 5 or 6 am in west arkansas/Louisiana about 4 mb deeper sooner and dropping rapidly; starting to "bomb out" not sure if it meets that criteria though.