Do we want to include 4/25 and 4/26 here or keep them in the severe weather 2023 thread?
I will include them here. SPC still seems bullish about Thursday.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms will be possible across parts of the
central Gulf Coast states on Thursday, with damaging gusts and hail.
...Synopsis...
On Thursday, a low-amplitude trough will move east across the lower
MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys, becoming less defined by
afternoon. Still, 500 mb wind speeds of 40+ kt will be common from
eastern TX into KY/TN.
At the surface, weak low pressure will exist over LA and MS, with a
cold front decelerating into LA and northwest MS through 00Z. While
surface winds will be light east of the cold front, mid to upper 60s
dewpoints will return into the LA/MA/AL area, resulting in
destabilization.
Elsewhere, a potent upper trough will develop over the northern
Rockies and High Plains, with strong cooling aloft pushing south
toward the central Rockies/High Plains by Friday morning. Lift along
a southward-surging cold front may yield a few thunderstorms in a
weakly unstable air mass with steep lapse rates, with locally strong
gusts in part due to the convection.
...Central Gulf Coast States...
Morning convection is expected to stretch from OK into TN within a
weak theta-e advection regime and north of a warm front. This
boundary will lift north into northern MS and AL by late afternoon,
with areas of storms possible during the day.
The greatest opportunity for severe storms will be during the
afternoon, as pockets of heating aid destabilization well ahead of
the cold front. Possible foci for development will be the cold front
over LA/northwest MS and any outflows from earlier convection, but
storms may also form during the peak-heating hours due to the
increasing moisture and uncapped air mass.
That said, significant model differences exist with when and where
antecedent convection will occur, and this currently precludes a
Slight Risk. For example, the ECMWF shows widespread storms over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, which would hamper destabilization inland.
In addition, 850 mb winds will only average 15-25 kt, which will
reduce SRH. As such, will introduce low probabilities at this time
for wind and hail potential.
Please continue to comment with your CWASPS (my faves lol) and model runs for this event, and I will adjust the title as needed.