Severe WX April 19-22nd, 2023

[TornadoFan]

Tight couplet between Johnson and Prague.

 

[ColdFront]

From what I saw was the PTDS was lite up like a Christmas tree at the time. Sorry, but so much for the Slight Risk as well over OK. SHould have at least been an EHN. I mean CAPE was at 3500 and an LI at -10, with VTP at 14 and what looked like about a 70Td near OKC around 7:00 P.M. on the Meso page

I think this event (at least the southern section) really over performed. It was all conditional anyway.

 

[ColdFront]

It’s always funny going from Dixie radar watching to plains. Some of these are so slow speed wise

 

[Timhsv]

I think this event (at least the southern section) really over performed. It was all conditional anyway.

It definley then overperformed.....waay over performed.

 

[jiharris0220]

Even I was a bit surprised about just how efficient these cells were at producing tornadoes.
However, overall, it isn’t too hard to believe.
Every model showed a volatile environment, it was really all about wether the cap would break or not.
And well, I guess we know the answer to that.

 

[JBishopwx]

From what I saw was the PTDS was lite up like a Christmas tree at the time. Sorry, but so much for the Slight Risk as well over OK. SHould have at least been an EHN. I mean CAPE was at 3500 and an LI at -10, with VTP at 14 and what looked like about a 70Td near OKC around 7:00 P.M. on the Meso page

Yeah it was a pretty impressive PTDS

 

[Timhsv]

Yeah it was a pretty impressive PTDS

Yes sir indeed.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It looks like the Shawnee/Meeker storm just died and an entirely new supercell blew up just to its east. Fascinating cycles/propagation tonight.

 

[Equus]

 

[Austin Dawg]

They increased our chance of thunderstorms to 90% tomorrow with the good chance of some being severe with all modes possible. Rare they would change so much for this area. I will have to take a good look at things in the morning and then size things up.

 

[WhirlingWx]

Watching another possible area of convergence on velocity near or SE of Prague, however I do note a feature on reflectivity expanding outwards from the SW corner of the storm. Could be going outflow dominant now? Maybe? Hopefully?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

They increased our chance of thunderstorms to 90% tomorrow with the good chance of some being severe with all modes possible. Rare they would change so much for this area. I will have to take a good look at things in the morning and then size things up.

Likewise, the forecasts for my area are skeptical that sufficient destablization will occur for the afternoon round in this neck of the woods, but I'm keeping a close eye on things tomorrow. This system has shown it means business.

 

[Equus]

RFD may be cutting off the storm finally

 

[andyhb]

Fatality reported via KWTV in Cole OK.

 

[WhirlingWx]

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Lmao I kept my eye off this event and missed it. RIP.

 

[Tennie]

Lmao I kept my eye off this event and missed it. RIP.

Same here! I don't usually track days with less than 10% tornado probabilities on the SPC convective outlooks, which this one was.

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah, I knew this was very conditional.

What really made me pay attention to it, because I had completely wrote it off, was Trey’s tweet analysis on the special sounding sent up a few hours before. And he noted the cap was pretty much gone.

 

[ColdFront]

I got Some very textbook radar supercell images too:

 

[TH2002]

Hate to take attention away from the fatalities and damage left behind, but I can already sense all the wannabe forecasters hounding the SPC's twitter account with "U SUCK SPC WHY DIDNT U ISSUE A HIGH RISK YESTURDAY?!?!?"