MattW
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- Decatur, GA
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- KG4GUF
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- SKYWARN® Volunteer
GFS also trying to show some north gulf development by the end of the week.
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The GFS remains aggressive with invest 97L in the short term.
• The MJO remains not well defined which is reflected in both the velocity potential anomaly index and RMM observations during the past week.
• There is better agreement in the dynamical models depicting continued eastward propagation of the signal across the western Pacific and into the western Hemisphere, but several RMM forecasts generally maintain a low amplitude during the next two weeks.
• The rapid phase speed in RMM space is suggestive of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave over the Pacific projecting onto the index.
• Some model solutions (BOM, CFS) hint at a more coherent signal possibly emerging over Africa and the western Indian Ocean, which could be tied to Kelvin wave activity aiding in the reorganization of the MJO in the eastern Hemisphere later in August.
• Other modes of tropical variability are more likely to be primary contributors to precipitation and tropical cyclogenesis in the Pacific and Atlantic during the outlook period.