In the words of the great JR Jim Ross....Business is about to pick up...
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Great! Thanks for that, love to learn!@Brice
Sounding from easter 2020 over south/south central Mississippi ahead of tornado family that produced the historic soso/bassfield tornado. As a comparison View attachment 18229
Sounding around west central missippi from the GFS (yes this sounding is elevated) For the upcoming event just for comparison. Seems to be a better EML forecasted that the Easter 2020 event. View attachment 18233
@UncleJuJu98 Not so fast...upon closer examination the GFS’s forecast soundings do not show much directional shear over most of the best thermodynamics between 00Z–06Z on Friday, especially below 700 mb. There is a good EML in place, but the LLJ is relatively weak until after sunset, and by then most of the ongoing convection is situated along the cold front. The most pronounced falls in height largely lag behind the prefrontal warm sector and the timing of the ML negative tilt does not bode well for widespread discrete development. If the trough were faster and negatively tilted earlier there would be a genuine potential for multiple EF2+ tornado families, but ad verbatim the recent GFS runs do not look as impressive as advertised tornado-wise. I still think that these runs show a severe-wind vs. a significant-tornado threat.We've hit the @Casuarina Head red flag mark, so we know we are in potentially deep doo doo with this event lol. When somebody that usually plays devil's advocate to our more optimistic looks on severe events, says this is a dangerous looking event probably should get your attention some.
@Casuarina Head lol all love to ya, good to have somebody to level the playing field. And hamper hyperbole
Of course, there's still several days left between now and then, which means a good number more model runs to comb through and pick apart. In fact, although I'm personally not a betting man, if I were, I'd be willing to bet that we'll have to wait for the event to actually start the day of in order to decide what kind of event we'll end up seeing.@UncleJuJu98 Not so fast...upon closer examination the GFS’s forecast soundings do not show much directional shear over most of the best thermodynamics between 00Z–06Z on Friday, especially below 700 mb. There is a good EML in place, but the LLJ is relatively weak until after sunset, and by then most of the ongoing convection is situated along the cold front. The most pronounced falls in height largely lag behind the prefrontal warm sector and the timing of the ML negative tilt does not bode well for widespread discrete development. If the trough were faster and negatively tilted earlier there would be a genuine potential for multiple EF2+ tornado families, but ad verbatim the recent GFS runs do not look as impressive as advertised tornado-wise. I still think that these runs show a severe-wind vs. a significant-tornado threat.
I really enjoy this forum and as a severe weather lover this is the best place to discuss it…. Really enjoy reading and learning from everyone’s post here… but the lack of post from Fred gossage and Andy is sort concerning …
That's an attention getter.... Seems to be a better EML forecasted that the Easter 2020 event.
I think what he means when he characterizes a significant tornado family he means a parent supercell that goes on to produce off and on significant tornadoes, when he says potentially multiple significant tornado families that means multiple damaging significant parent supercells. But yes it does just take one. I'm trying to understand what characterizes a big event to him than us that live here in it just so I can understand where he's coming from; a lot of times conflicts are just misunderstandings, I think he's looking at the grand scheme of the entire event and not the singular area storm.By the way, please quit focusing so much on "tornado families." The ingredients are apparently going to be there and have been showing for a week for tornado potential. Family or not, it only takes one. Case in point, April 8, 1998. The science is great and necessary but sometimes you need to stop worrying about the technicalities and realize that this weekend someone may lose their home, their spouse, their parent or their child. THAT is what is important in the grand scheme of things. Not whether or not an event fits in the nice little box it's supposed to.
I think what he means when he characterizes a significant tornado family he means a parent supercell that goes on to produce off and on significant tornadoes, when he says potentially multiple significant tornado families that means multiple damaging significant parent supercells. But yes it does just take one. I'm trying to understand what characterizes a big event to him than us that live here in it just so I can understand where he's coming from; a lot of times conflicts are just misunderstandings, I think he's looking at the grand scheme of the entire event and not the singular area storm.
Potential for one significant tornado family is high according to him, which is what happened with the F5 in oak Grove and that storm on April 8, 1998.
Many of our tornado outbreaks in the south are from singular significant tornado families with one parents cell and accompanying spin ups and short lived weaker storms. The January outbreak we had with the Selma tornado was characterized by one significant tornado family
Alrighty, just trying to help mend any misunderstandings if there is any; sometimes it can be a issue.I still stand by my statement. Sorry mods, not trying to derail the thread.
And now I have to go look that event up….I think moving forward though, we are liable to see such a robust setup possibly rivaling easter 2020. Which I still cant believe the soso bassfield tornado was not rated Ef5. It's been the closest ever since the Moore Ef5.
Soso/bassfield is easily one of the most memorable tornadoes in recent memory a 2 mile wide monster.
Third largest tornado outbreak in the states on record.And now I have to go look that event up….
Third largest tornado outbreak in the states on record.
2020 Easter tornado outbreak - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Thank you…Third largest tornado outbreak in the states on record.
2020 Easter tornado outbreak - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Hold on lol I thought the soso bassfield was 195. Lol my memory must be wack. I swear it was 195mph.Thank you…
I DID notice the risk areas are similar to this weeks set up. Here is the meteorological synopsis (and summary) for the 2020 Easter Outbreak. I wonder how it differs (if any) to how things look for this weekend?????
………DISCUSS lol
Meteorological synopsis
Satellite image of the extratropical cyclone responsible for the outbreak across the Southeastern United States at 21:56 UTC on April 12
Background
For weeks throughout March and into April, an expansive area of high pressure built across the Southeast United States, contributing to abnormally warm temperatures across much of the country. The United States as a whole experienced its seventeenth warmest March, continuing the pattern that persisted throughout winter. In particular, many locations along the U.S. and Mexican Gulf coasts saw record warmest temperatures for the month. Calm weather associated with the high-pressure area induced rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico waters to their highest values in the modern record—greater than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above the 1971–2010 average—as well as a moistening of the air near the surface. Increased instability associated with anomalously warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico has been associated with an increased risk of severe weather and tornado activity.
Summary
Throughout the two-day outbreak, a total of 141 tornadoes touched down across 10 states, inflicting widespread and locally catastrophic damage. The outbreak currently ranks 3rd for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period with 132 of them occurring between 14:40 UTC April 12–13, only being beat by the 1974 Super Outbreak with 148, and the 2011 Super Outbreak with 219. The strongest tornado was rated high-end EF4 and occurred in Southern Mississippi, producing estimated winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), reaching a width of 2.25 mi (3.62 km), and causing eight deaths. With a total of 32 tornado-related fatalities, it was the deadliest tornado outbreak since April 27–30, 2014. To assist with recovery efforts, governors of five states declared a state of emergency. Relief efforts were complicated by social distancing requirements amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
So first thing Friday morning for W GA. SMHMMFS experimental model STP output valid 10Z 03/03 and reflectivity valid 1230Z.
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