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- #41
At this point, if it means it will warm back up, I say bring it! I'm freeezing! LOL
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AMEN!At this point, if it means it will warm back up, I say bring it! I'm freeezing! LOL
Kory, any thoughts on the system around the 24th of this Month?The daily running TNI is at some of the highest readings I've ever seen (currently at ~+2.8). Aided by enhanced trades in the Central Equatorial Pacific and reduced trades in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. This looks to continue for the next few weeks as well.
I think that will be the start of a more active period. Signs point to a low amplitude trough dropping into the West and ejecting east for that period.Kory, any thoughts on the system around the 24th of this Month?
Yeah, anytime you're dealing with a jet extension across the North Pac, you're gonna see wild swings. Bottom line, we're gonna see a different pattern ahead than the past few weeks.The pattern still looks to shift into a more active one for severe weather next week, but model consistency/agreement of particular systems is horrid. GFS ensembles have a large spread of solutions and the operational GFS, EURO have varied significantly from run to run.
I'd bet on a fair bit of severe weather in the coming few weeks, and the possibility of a few tornado outbreaks, maybe a significant one, is there. That being said, as usual for this time of year it looks like the biggest threat will probably end up being straight-line wind damage.
Yeah under most circumstances I'm fairly neutral on the "weather weenie-casting" (as opposed to the people who either say "oh, it's gonna be nothing, just a couple of hail reports" or the people who say "It's April 27/May 3/insert other catastrophic outbreak here all over again!"), but this one is looking downright dangerous based on the GFS. The ECMWF on the other hand is being much more conservative. Even this far out I'd advise everyone in the lower MS Valley and Ark-La-Tex area keep a very close eye on the forecast in the coming days to see which one ends up being right.I am still sticking to my original statement. I truly believe we are in for a major tornado outbreak! Time will tell but my data screams big issues!
Yeah under most circumstances I'm fairly neutral on the "weather weenie-casting" (as opposed to the people who either say "oh, it's gonna be nothing, just a couple of hail reports" or the people who say "It's April 27/May 3/insert other catastrophic outbreak here all over again!"), but this one is looking downright dangerous based on the GFS. The ECMWF on the other hand is being much more conservative. Even this far out I'd advise everyone in the lower MS Valley and Ark-La-Tex area keep a very close eye on the forecast in the coming days to see which one ends up being right.
Yeah under most circumstances I'm fairly neutral on the "weather weenie-casting" (as opposed to the people who either say "oh, it's gonna be nothing, just a couple of hail reports" or the people who say "It's April 27/May 3/insert other catastrophic outbreak here all over again!"), but this one is looking downright dangerous based on the GFS. The ECMWF on the other hand is being much more conservative. Even this far out I'd advise everyone in the lower MS Valley and Ark-La-Tex area keep a very close eye on the forecast in the coming days to see which one ends up being right.
What is the timeframe on this? Thanks!
SPC has introduced a severe threat for Day 7 (Friday) across Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas. I'm surprised they outlook a region this far out given run to run inconsistencies, but 00z runs had enough consistency to outlook a region.
For Day 8 (Saturday), all of that shifts east into the MS Valley and Dixie. A LOT of inconsistency during this period leaves a lot of questions. Enough of a return flow should permit a sufficient warm sector for some severe storms. But, questions remain on the exact evolution of the trough as it ejects eastward.
I've only been interested in severe weather since October 2014, but I don't think I've ever seen the SPC issue a risk area this far out. They're either putting a lot of faith in the 00z runs or seeing something we aren't. It's a bit worrying.SPC has introduced a severe threat for Day 7 (Friday) across Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas. I'm surprised they outlook a region this far out given run to run inconsistencies, but 00z runs had enough consistency to outlook a region.
For Day 8 (Saturday), all of that shifts east into the MS Valley and Dixie. A LOT of inconsistency during this period leaves a lot of questions. Enough of a return flow should permit a sufficient warm sector for some severe storms. But, questions remain on the exact evolution of the trough as it ejects eastward.
Tropical Tidbits has point and click soundings now.Has anyone else been having trouble with the clickable soundings from Pivotal Weather being significantly delayed or never being available at all for several weeks now? The 12Z GFS at hour 156 still shows "soundings not available" as I am trying to sample that 1.5-3k j/kg CAPE environment progged over TX/OK. Frustrating.
Tropical Tidbits has point and click soundings now.
Has anyone else been having trouble with the clickable soundings from Pivotal Weather being significantly delayed or never being available at all for several weeks now? The 12Z GFS at hour 156 still shows "soundings not available" as I am trying to sample that 1.5-3k j/kg CAPE environment progged over TX/OK. Frustrating.