Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[A Guy]

Give it a rest.

FYI, there is such thing as the ignore button for people who's posts you don't want to see. Click profile, click ignore - on XenForo it works really well.

Whereas complaining about other poster's posting becomes itself annoying.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wednesday now starting look more dangerous also , atmosphere looks to really recover and set up super cells later that day .

 

[Casuarina Head]

Give it a rest.

Honestly, I really think there is the potential for a cap-bust over much of the 15% hatched TOR. The NAM has not been very reliable and the EPS seemingly shows weaker forcing over the hatched area than ever, with forcing to the north being overwhelmingly linear. If there is a bust, then I would blame the modelling rather than the SPC. Anyway, I think we have seen more than enough severe weather tornado-wise recently from the standpoint of life and property. If this event busts tornado-wise, the outcome would be very positive from this viewpoint. I think the MDT will verify for wind and hail, but tornadoes might be another story.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Honestly, I really think there is the potential for a cap-bust over much of the 15% hatched TOR. The NAM has not been very reliable and the EPS seemingly shows weaker forcing over the hatched area than ever, with forcing to the north being overwhelmingly linear. If there is a bust, then I would blame the modelling rather than the SPC. Anyway, I think we have seen more than enough severe weather tornado-wise recently from the standpoint of life and property. If this event busts tornado-wise, the outcome would be very positive from this viewpoint. I think the MDT will verify for wind and hail, but tornadoes might be another story.

Well it’s Spring time, we can t control the weather … do think Wednesday going be the day. Be honest we don’t need sleep on Wednesday for tornadoes …..

 

[jiharris0220]

FYI, there is such thing as the ignore button for people who's posts you don't want to see. Click profile, click ignore - on XenForo it works really well.

Whereas complaining about other poster's posting becomes itself annoying.

I’m going to agree with that.

While the posts of the “C dude” are brain rot inducing, it’s far better to either block/ignore than throw the thread of the rails confronting those comments.

Now let’s all get back to the moderate risk here.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

GFS and now NAM have steadily pushed the warm sector much further south for both Tuesday and Wednesday; I think I'm out of the game for this one.

 

[Clancy]

A tremendously large area for D4, and disco. mentions possibility for additional highlights for D5.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...
The upper cyclone over the northern Plains should evolve into an
open wave as it moves slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. A belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely persist from parts of the southern/central Plains into the
mid MS Valley and OH Valley/Midwest. An embedded shortwave trough
should encourage the development of a weak surface low over the mid
MS Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. A warm front should extend
eastward from this low across the OH Valley, while a cold front is
forecast to extend southward from the low across the southern
Plains. Moderate to strong instability should develop from
north-central/northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and
parts of the OH/TN Valleys, as daytime heating acts on a rich/moist
low-level airmass. Strong deep-layer shear will act to organize
convection that can develop along both the warm and cold fronts
through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Supercells posing a threat for
all severe hazards appear possible, as well as clusters capable of
producing damaging winds. Given that convection may be ongoing
Wednesday morning across parts of these regions, confidence in a
corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include a
30% severe area at this time.

...Day 5/Thursday...
Differences in model guidance regarding the position and amplitude
of an upper trough across the Midwest/OH Valley become more
pronounced by Thursday. Still, some chance for organized severe
thunderstorms remains apparent from parts of the Mid-Atlantic
southwestward into portions of the Southeast, and perhaps TX too.
Confidence in the location of relevant surface boundaries and areas
of greater instability to their south remains low, owing to multiple
days of prior convection and various associated outflows. Trends in
model guidance will continue to be monitored for possible inclusion
of one or more 15% severe areas, pending better model agreement.

...Day 6/Friday...
Severe potential should become confined to parts of the Southeast on
Friday, as a cold front generally moves east-southeastward across
the eastern CONUS in tandem with an upper trough. Similar concerns
as Thursday exist regarding where better severe potential will
focus, with generally low predictability at this time.

...Day 7/Saturday and Day 8/Sunday...
Any lingering severe threat should be confined to parts of FL on
Saturday, along/south of a cold front. With limited low-level
convergence forecast, overall severe potential seems fairly low.
Minimal severe threat across the CONUS is currently evident for next
Sunday, as the cold front clears the East Coast.

..Gleason.. 05/05/2024

 

[Clancy]

CIPS ML-probs are widespread from D2 all the way to D6. CSU probs also impressive for the time period, peaking on Wednesday over parts of the OH Valley.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

A tremendously large area for D4, and disco. mentions possibility for additional highlights for D5.
View attachment 26303

Ohio has, unfortunately, been the star of this severe weather season so far.

 

[jiharris0220]

Teenie bit contaminated but still. May 8th

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Think we will see upgrade for day 4 threat things hold….

 

[JPWX]

Think we will see upgrade for day 4 threat things hold….

Yep

 

[Clancy]

Pretty much all the CAMs advertise a dangerous situation for the Plains tomorrow. HRRR depicts prefrontal supercells across the central Plains and some late evening tornadic activity over OK.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Pretty much all the CAMs advertise a dangerous situation for the Plains tomorrow. HRRR depicts prefrontal supercells across the central Plains and some late evening tornadic activity over OK.
View attachment 26311View attachment 26312View attachment 26313View attachment 26314View attachment 26315

The far southern threat area (TX/OK border, Southern OK) with that separate belt of upper level flow with a more westerly look could maintain a more discrete mode longer than the northern area. This is a feature that was popping up on the NAM.

 

[KevinH]

Here’s something even better.
View attachment 26297

 

[KevinH]

CIPS ML-probs are widespread from D2 all the way to D6. CSU probs also impressive for the time period, peaking on Wednesday over parts of the OH Valley.
View attachment 26304View attachment 26305View attachment 26306View attachment 26307View attachment 26308View attachment 26309

Man! Always love your posts @Clancy!

Also updated the name of the thread due to your post and the following post on Twitter.

To piggy back off what you say:

 

[KevinH]

FYI, there is such thing as the ignore button for people who's posts you don't want to see. Click profile, click ignore - on XenForo it works really well.

Whereas complaining about other poster's posting becomes itself annoying.

 

[andyhb]

Honestly, I really think there is the potential for a cap-bust over much of the 15% hatched TOR. The NAM has not been very reliable and the EPS seemingly shows weaker forcing over the hatched area than ever, with forcing to the north being overwhelmingly linear. If there is a bust, then I would blame the modelling rather than the SPC. Anyway, I think we have seen more than enough severe weather tornado-wise recently from the standpoint of life and property. If this event busts tornado-wise, the outcome would be very positive from this viewpoint. I think the MDT will verify for wind and hail, but tornadoes might be another story.

No model is showing a cap bust. If anything, too many storms may be a greater issue than the cap. If capping remains modest, that may actually increase the tornado threat by keeping weak updrafts minimal and allowing dominant updrafts to persist (i.e. discrete supercells).

 

[MoonBaby]

Man! Always love your posts @Clancy!

Also updated the name of the thread due to your post and the following post on Twitter.

To piggy back off what you say:

You keep that evil away from here!!
Somehow Alabama has escaped the most chaotic of the tornado situations so far this season.. kinda would like to keep it that way.

 

[KevinH]

You keep that evil away from here!!
Somehow Alabama has escaped the most chaotic of the tornado situations so far this season.. kinda would like to keep it that way.

The earth is going to do what the earth is gong to do. Not talking about it (on a forum about Severe weather hahaha) is not going to keep us safer lol