Casuarina Head
Member
Intriguingly, despite the rise in confidence, the wording is rather iffy, almost implying a conditional setup, rather than a synoptically-evident one:SPC added a 30% risk area for Monday
If I recall correctly, this phraseology implies that there may be complications that could modulate the extent, if not degree, of discrete activity. VBV issues seem to be a possibility, given the rather amplified pattern. Typically prior to high-confidence big Plains outbreaks widespread discrete activity is assumed as a given. In this case I don’t see it, but I could be missing something. The 00Z CIPS data look a bit less impressive too. Maybe a small hatched D1 MDT might verify for EF2+ tornadoes...even a more-linear solution might suffice to support this. I do think that if trends hold a D1 MDT may well be issued. Nevertheless, a bona-fide D1 HIGH verification has not been seen on the Plains in May for some time, so 2024 has a lot of catching up to do.With a southerly low-level jet forecast to strengthen to at least 50-60 kt Saturday evening, a corresponding rapid increase in low-level shear will likely support a continued threat for tornadoes with any discrete convection. Some of these tornadoes could be strong.