Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[jiharris0220]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 30% moderate, or perhaps a high risk if models stay as they are now or trend even worse up until tomorrow.

 

[MoonBaby]

The earth is going to do what the earth is gong to do. Not talking about it (on a forum about Severe weather hahaha) is not going to keep us safer lol

Oh I know haha I’m just being silly.

 

[andyhb]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 30% moderate, or perhaps a high risk if models stay as they are now or trend even worse up until tomorrow.

They won't go 30% here without adding a high, the threat for significant tornadoes is too high for that.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[andyhb]

Most current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over south-central OK.

Really very not great (newest SPC outlook).

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good googly moogly

 

[jiharris0220]

It seems like there will be all three types of storm modes tomorrow, with all of them having strong tornado potential.

Nebraska, linear mode with brief spin up tornadoes.
Kansas, semi discrete with strong tornadoes possible.
Oklahoma, discrete with strong, long track tornadoes possible.

 

[TornadoFan]

Good googly moogly

Let's not and say we did.

 

[Tanner]

Let's not and say we did.

I’m seeing a pink sharpie tomorrow.

 

[Maxis_s]

This parameter space is absolutely horrifying. I thought the first run of the NAM that showed that was an outlier... goodness gracious I was wrong.
I pray that it either goes linear or no storms fire.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TH2002]

FYI, there is such thing as the ignore button for people who's posts you don't want to see. Click profile, click ignore - on XenForo it works really well.

Whereas complaining about other poster's posting becomes itself annoying.

*edited to reduce the heat

I think part of the problem is that people here either feel some kind of 'moral obligation' to respond to casuarina's posts, or see him as 'annoying, but a part of the community nonetheless'.

I think it's also more of a testament to how kind TalkWeather is in general than anything else - let's just say that if TW wasn't the way it is, @Casuarina Head would have been banned a long time ago.

 

[Fred Gossage]

That always happens in the Plains, but if supercells are rooted prior to that nocturnal inversion developing, they will still be tapping a surface-based inflow environment from below the inversion and will still be capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes. For an example, think Greensburg KS 2007.

 

[Tanner]

I don’t see it being an issue.

 

[jiharris0220]

If low level lapse rates are high enough and cloud cover is marginal then that CIN will be meaningless. Of course, the key word is “if”.

Edit: even though the CIN may not seem like a big deal, we do got to take into account all potential failure modes. As these could either be a bigger or lesser factor in reality.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’m seeing a pink sharpie tomorrow.

Mean closer purple … know what u mean

 

[Fred Gossage]

If low level lapse rates are high enough and cloud cover is marginal then that CIN will be meaningless. Of course, the key word is “if”.

The convective inhibition being talked about here isn't a capping inversion. It's the nightly nocturnal low-level inversion that develops on the Plains from boundary layer decoupling. It happens after sunset; so, the amount of sunshine tomorrow has nothing to do with it. We're not looking for it to be broken or eroded because it won't be (although it may not build in as fast, the stronger the low-level winds are). We are looking for supercellular updrafts to get rooted in the surface-based inflow layer prior to it getting established.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’m seeing a pink sharpie tomorrow.

Look for a very large 30 percent area on Wednesday s threat … the lapse rates 12z models r showing r nearly off chart , going be a very serious big hail threst
Along with wide area of
Damaging winds along decent tornado threat … wouldn’t count out a true derecho forming behind few super cells out ahead …. But let’s worry about tomorrow first.

 

[andyhb]

The convective inhibition being talked about here isn't a capping inversion. It's the nightly nocturnal low-level inversion that develops on the Plains from boundary layer decoupling. It happens after sunset; so, the amount of sunshine tomorrow has nothing to do with it. We're not looking for it to be broken or eroded because it won't be (although it may not build in as fast, the stronger the low-level winds are). We are looking for supercellular updrafts to get rooted in the surface-based inflow layer prior to it getting established.

Moisture advection helps counter this, and boy do I see a lot of it through the day and into tomorrow evening.

 

[JPWX]

At this point, tomorrow has the best potential thus far this year of seeing the first High Risk. Regardless, that Moderate Risk is going to be expanded a lot with most likely a 45% SIG damaging wind and hail probability as well.