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The CMC forecast strengthening in an environment characterized by unfavorably dry air, and shear. That's baloney! Just maybe depending on how well it holds up similar to 99L that eventually became Gert, it could develop when it gets closer to the U.S. Noted on some CMC, EURO, and GFS ensembles.
Just one model showing a Gulf impact out of several that curve up the east coast. i.e., it is an outlier. Obviously things could change and JP qualifies his statement by saying "less likely"(unlike one of his competitors who likes to make definitive statements on things like this many days ahead of time).
Invest 92L is back in the Atlantic and is now upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten. Expected to become Irma soon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...31.0N 80.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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