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This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

Taylor Campbell

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Severe weather threat as early as Friday, and Saturday with UKMET, EURO, GFS, and CANADIAN all agreeing on a lobe of energy ejecting out of the west from the main trough.

Large spread on the GFS ensembles for this period too.
 

rolltide_130

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What's the latest on the upcoming possible threat? Everybody got quiet.

Still waiting on the 0z models to come out as it takes another hour due to the time jump. There's a lot of potential problems showing up (Such as the same problems that plagued us on 4/5 last year) regarding the ceiling of the threat.
 

Taylor Campbell

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What's the latest on the upcoming possible threat? Everybody got quiet.

It's quite because nothing has really changed. Model inconsistency is beyond ridiculous, and will likely remain for a while. Some pretty intense solutions, but also some pretty tame solutions.
 

Taylor Campbell

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It's quite because nothing has really changed. Model inconsistency is beyond ridiculous, and will likely remain for a while. Some pretty intense solutions, but also some pretty tame solutions.


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140756
SPC AC 140756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in general agreement that a strong
short-wave trough will flatten a mid-continent ridge during the day4
period. However, considerable differences emerge in regards to the
speed of the short wave and the degree of height falls, or lack
thereof, over the Mid-South. As a result, trailing surface front
should extend across the northern Gulf states into the Red River
region where weak height rises are expected. While a seasonally
moist air mass should encompass much of the Southern States through
the medium-range period, there is considerable uncertainty regarding
the timing of short waves. Organized severe may ultimately develop
along the western-northern fringe of this moisture/instability plume
but predictability remains low regarding the timing and areal
extent.

..Darrow.. 03/14/2018
 

Taylor Campbell

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Don’t forget about Friday, and Saturday’s threat with the first shortwave to eject out of the west. This one looks interesting for us with the lapse rates, and discrete/scattered nature of the storms.


SPC AC 140611

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LA
COAST TO NORTHERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower
Mississippi Valley including the threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...Lower MS Valley...

Short-range model guidance continues to suggest a strong short-wave
trough will eject across the central Plains into the lower OH Valley
by Saturday morning. While this feature is handled reasonably
consistently among the models, 14/00z NAM is the most
aggressive/faster with height falls at lower latitudes, flattening
the ridge considerably more over AR. It's not entirely clear how far
south the stronger forcing will develop, but all models agree higher
PW air mass should extend from the upper TX coast into southeast AR,
ahead of a pronounced wind shift that should surge into western
AR/northeast TX by peak heating. Strong boundary-layer heating is
expected west of this boundary across OK/TX and the strongest
corridor of instability should develop across the Arklatex where
highest severe probs are represented. Given the likelihood for
weaker forcing across northern LA it appears heating along the
boundary should prove instrumental in convective development.
Forecast shear profiles favor deep rotating updrafts and hail/wind,
and perhaps a few tornadoes, can be expected with supercells that
evolve across this region.

Farther north ahead of the surface low, a very narrow zone of strong
boundary-layer heating is expected across parts of eastern KS during
the afternoon. If lower 50s surface dew points can advect into this
region there is some concern for a few low-topped supercells. At
this time will not introduce severe probs, but if confidence
increases for this to occur then later outlooks will reflect at
least a MRGL into this region.

..Darrow.. 03/14/2018
 

Taylor Campbell

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I created two threads. One for Friday/Saturday’s threat, and another for Sunday/Monday’s threat.
 
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If the look on last nites 0z euro hold at 240hr. Something big is coming out that look.... know it will change. But that’s a very ominous pattern shaping up end of the month ... I’m just chomping at the bit I guess ...
 

akt1985

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I see there is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday over parts of Alabama. Is this the system that was so concerning 240 hours out?
 

rolltide_130

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Time to start looking down the road for the next potential.

The Plains looks potentially interesting on Friday, but I see no threats for Dixie over the next 10 days.

It will be VERY difficult to get a threat that will match or exceed yesterday's level again in AL this spring. Not impossible, but getting multiple moderate or even high risks in one year for North-Central AL is exceedingly rare.
 

Kory

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The Plains looks potentially interesting on Friday, but I see no threats for Dixie over the next 10 days.

It will be VERY difficult to get a threat that will match or exceed yesterday's level again in AL this spring. Not impossible, but getting multiple moderate or even high risks in one year for North-Central AL is exceedingly rare.
I personally wouldn't say that considering the background pattern. Low AAM, NE confluence, and low amplitude MJO. This won't be the last threat by any stretch of the imagination. Of course most severe threats are determined by mesoscale, but synoptically, we are primed for April. Just have to see how mesoscale things work out...
 
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Last couple of GFS solutions would support some degree of severe threat in the southern/central Plains sometime next weekend into early next week.

Also there's the tornado watch currently in effect over parts of FL, with another planned for GA/SC. Perhaps the other thread's title should be changed from March 18-19 to March 19-20.
 
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The Plains looks potentially interesting on Friday, but I see no threats for Dixie over the next 10 days.

It will be VERY difficult to get a threat that will match or exceed yesterday's level again in AL this spring. Not impossible, but getting multiple moderate or even high risks in one year for North-Central AL is exceedingly rare.
Wow. Hope your joking ... it’s barrly spring Just first day that.... figure we going have plenty threats to come for Dixie and midsouth... there be good chance we have bigger fish to fry even Plains gets going later mid to late may. Course anytime. Can happen. April going be interesting indeed
 
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Point made here. April 2011 ...west ten Memphis area was under high risk threat 3 different times that month. Not moderate. But a HIGH risk ... not saying happens ever again. But like kory said ...
 
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Point made here. April 2011 ...west ten Memphis area was under high risk threat 3 different times that month. Not moderate. But a HIGH risk ... not saying happens ever again. But like kory said ...
Edit. Correct myself here. 2 times were April. Then we had a high risk later
May that year. Sorry my bad
 
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