Severe Weather 2018

[rolltide_130]

Yeah, we should see a relatively quiet pattern for the next 7-10 days, but things look to change beyond that...

Middle to the end of March looks like a bumpy one.. this will be winter's last breath this week before we fully transition to a progressive spring pattern.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

in fact the 0z euro had pretty stout ull over the upper south midsouth.... though 7 to 8 days out but wouldnt suprise me to see last winter mischeif for the upper south... then we should see the trough kick out to sea replaced by eastern ridging western trough... with the pna going negative toward end march nao ao back more nuetral positive.phase... things should be kicking by end month for the severe weather in dixie alley... ready

 

[akt1985]

Yeah, we should see a relatively quiet pattern for the next 7-10 days, but things look to change beyond that...

How heavy is the rain supposed to be on the Gulf next weekend? I’m planning on going to New Orleans next Saturday but I don’t want to go if it’s a flooding rain.

 

[rolltide_130]

How heavy is the rain supposed to be on the Gulf next weekend? I’m planning on going to New Orleans next Saturday but I don’t want to go if it’s a flooding rain.

The rain is the least of your worries in that city

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Both the operational GFS, and EURO are hinting at a potent system for next Sunday (the day we spring forward an hour). Lapse rates could be some of the best we have seen in a long time. This threat potential has been there as previously mentioned, but ticked up today with some trends, and agreement.

 

[Kory]

Middle to the end of March looks like a bumpy one.. this will be winter's last breath this week before we fully transition to a progressive spring pattern.

Yep, the CFS severe wx guidance is sure hinting around Mid to Late March.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There still appears a lot to be determined about this weekend, and late next week looks interesting.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

There still appears a lot to be determined about this weekend, and late next week looks interesting.

Yeah. 12z euro today looking like a interesting setup for next weekend. Way to nearly go in detail. But after this week. Pattern change gets into motion towards a progressive spring setup ....

 

[rolltide_130]

Next weekend has moisture return problems with the ridge being too far west.

I'm very intrigued by the GFS solution for this weekend (ESE moving supercell environment can yield some interesting results in Dixie), but the GFS is such an extreme outlier to the point to where it's the only model showing anything more than some showers..

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Next weekend has moisture return problems with the ridge being too far west.

I'm very intrigued by the GFS solution for this weekend (ESE moving supercell environment can yield some interesting results in Dixie), but the GFS is such an extreme outlier to the point to where it's the only model showing anything more than some showers..

Yeah. Not buyin into it. Trough not negative tilted hardly at all on ensembles

 

[rolltide_130]

Yeah. Not buyin into it. Trough not negative tilted hardly at all on ensembles

Tilt has nothing to do with whether or not there's a severe weather threat (Matter of fact I actually prefer neutral to positive tilts for Dixie events..). The problem is the odds of it getting sheared out, as well as a possibility of coastal convection.

 

[MattW]

Yeah. Not buyin into it. Trough not negative tilted hardly at all on ensembles

Back on the old forum, I remember someone posted an analysis of tilt vs severe events in our area. I believe the result was that events with ANY tilt are more dangerous than no tilt.

 

[jmills]

Back on the old forum, I remember someone posted an analysis of tilt vs severe events in our area. I believe the result was that events with ANY tilt are more dangerous than no tilt.

Fred Gossage posted that. You could possibly dig through the Wayback archives and see if you can find it.

 

[rolltide_130]

He's done some very in-depth research into trough orientation over the years. I don't know about neutral titls having a lesser severe threat, but his research disproved the notion that a positive tilt trough meant a lesser severe threat. Matter of fact, those tend to be more favorable for discrete, long tracked supercell environments than negative tilts across Dixie.. matter of fact, Super Tuesday was a slightly positive tilt trough.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Back on the old forum, I remember someone posted an analysis of tilt vs severe events in our area. I believe the result was that events with ANY tilt are more dangerous than no tilt.

yeh i remember fred talking bout trough tilt in old form now....

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS remains very interesting for an early morning threat across AL on Sunday. Lapse rates are over 7, and shear profiles are quite supportive of tornadic thunderstorms.

 

[rolltide_130]

Here's what the problem is with the current state of our weather models..

Current GFS valid at H84. This would be a severe threat if we had some thermos to work with across a lot of Dixie.

Last night's Euro (It's a mess getting an H84 for the 12z run that has a good surface chart). This would limit the severe threat to the immediate coast and be more of a heavy rain event.

Current NAM run valid for H84. This will just be some scattered showers and it would just be a cool, nasty, overcast day for us..

This is just sad. I would GLADLY take our models from 2007-2008 for forecasts over these any day.. accuracy in the medium range is just completely out the window with this system, and it's why I strongly advise against getting the hype train started as only 1 of the major models has any appreciable threat for us this weekend..

 

[Kory]

Keep an eye on the weekend of the 17th/18th. Right after the big eastern trough, which suppresses the pattern into low amplitude...

As far this as this weekend...isolated severe, but return trajectories are horrible as is pattern evolution.

 

[rolltide_130]

Keep an eye on the weekend of the 17th/18th. Right after the big eastern trough, which suppresses the pattern into low amplitude...

As far this as this weekend...isolated severe, but return trajectories are horrible as is pattern evolution.

If the GFS somehow verifies, I could see a decent little hail event coming out of this. I do agree that next weekend could be a significant setup though..

 

[SilentShadow87]

If the GFS somehow verifies, I could see a decent little hail event coming out of this. I do agree that next weekend could be a significant setup though..

Considering how much of an outlier the GFS is at this point, I wouldn't hold my breath. If the Euro verifies we could still see some isolated severe weather, though.