Severe Weather 2018

[tennessee storm chaser]

Good analysis, Fred. I'm used to expecting the models to be over-bullish on CAPE, especially when they start showing 3,000+ j/kg for early season events, but perhaps their biases have changed? I wonder what the reason for this is?

Very interested in next weeks mid week system very much 12 z suits today be interesting

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The 00Z Euro tonight initialized SBCAPE wholesale across the entire warm sector a solid 600-1000+ j/kg too low compared to the 00Z balloon soundings. That means it couldn't even correctly regurgitate what it ingested from the balloon data at 00 hrs. The 12 hr SBCAPE forecast for 00Z tonight from back on the 12Z run was even further off, and it's been wrong for days about this, over and over, run after run. Now, there's another system coming mid week (with a more favorable setup than this one for low-level moisture advection and mid-level EML advection), and the Euro is squashing its instability too, for the same INCORRECT reasons that it had low to no instability in the warm sector of this killer tornado event... and I'm supposed to just magically believe it? Nope, no thanks...

EDIT: And running trends in the NAM and GFS for the past few days, they have been consistently 5+ (in some cases 7+) degrees too low on dewpoints across the warm sector for tonight (and some of the runs have only gotten worse in comparison to reality, the closer we have gotten)...

Good hear from you Fred. Who know I always enjoy reading your thoughts. Me being huge severe wx lover Thinking a active spring coming. ?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12z euro. Was a nasty run for Dixie alley and midsouth region mid week

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Meanwhile NAM and GFS say meh. Ominous 500 mb look that the GFS had at 0z Thursday is gone, and CAPE is still non-existent across most of the warm sector.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Meanwhile NAM and GFS say meh. Ominous 500 mb look that the GFS had at 0z Thursday is gone, and CAPE is still non-existent across most of the warm sector.

Wouldn’t worry bout cape. Just yet. Shear off the charts. With other wind fields with a bombing slp

 

[rolltide_130]

Meanwhile NAM and GFS say meh. Ominous 500 mb look that the GFS had at 0z Thursday is gone, and CAPE is still non-existent across most of the warm sector.

CAPE has been HORRIFICALLY underdone by models this winter. Fred told me last night that, in addition to models way underdoing it, the synoptic setup is much more favorable for adequate thermodynamics than even this one was..

 

[MattW]

If shear is too much though, wouldn't that mean any storm gets sheared out and unable to produce?

 

[Kory]

Some pretty warm mid level temps on the NAM with the Wednesday/Thursday system. Kills a lot of the instability. It is very unusual to see that with the W/WSW 500mb winds.

 

[rolltide_130]

Some pretty warm mid level temps on the NAM with the Wednesday/Thursday system. Kills a lot of the instability. It is very unusual to see that with the W/WSW 500mb winds.

The general consensus from my camp is model error..

 

[Kory]

Looks like models are entraining a piece of the subtropical jet and the phase with the southern stream vorticity is off, thus resulting in wonky wind fields and less than desirable instability. This thing has some work to do as models have taken steps back from the very potent solutions just a few days ago...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This thing has some work to do as models have taken steps back from the very potent solutions just a few days ago...

What else is new? Even Broyles' day-3 outlook sounded very conservative by his standards (didn't even mention the T-word). Maybe he's finally wising up to the fact that you can't trust the models (even "King" Euro) in the Day 4-6 range anymore. Thoughts as to why that is?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What else is new? Even Broyles' day-3 outlook sounded very conservative by his standards (didn't even mention the T-word). Maybe he's finally wising up to the fact that you can't trust the models (even "King" Euro) in the Day 4-6 range anymore. Thoughts as to why that is?

Yeah. Models are getting fed by some mis leading data .... not sure exactly why. But it’s seriously time for a major upgrade ... on this situation All
I can add to this for now

 

[akt1985]

Brad Travis mentioned that flash flooding is possible along the Alabama/Tennessee state line Wednesday and Thursday. Muscle Shoals has had over 11 inches of rain this month.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

More than a couple of ensemble members with the last several GFS ensemble runs have supported an interesting day 10-14 period. The max supercell composite has been high, and wide across the board. I could see how a big event unfolds in this period, but also how it could be mitigated or delayed. Let’s keep an eye on it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

More than a couple of ensemble members with the last several GFS ensemble runs have supported an interesting day 10-14 period. The max supercell composite has been high, and wide across the board. I could see how a big event unfolds in this period, but also how it could be mitigated or delayed. Let’s keep an eye on it.

What happened to the frigid eastern trough everybody was talking up for March (more so on AmWx than here)?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[rolltide_130]

What happened to the frigid eastern trough everybody was talking up for March (more so on AmWx than here)?

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It's definitely moderating. We'll get a cold blast this weekend and the early next week system may bring one as well, but March as a whole should probably end up near or above average

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It's definitely moderating. We'll get a cold blast this weekend and the early next week system may bring one as well, but March as a whole should probably end up near or above average

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Bring on the bouncing around temps. ... yeah the eastern trough keeps getting pushed out. I’m jonesing for a big event . Like Taylor said I’m starting to like. Long range I sure got my eye on it

 

[bwalk]

TVS warning was tripped south of Bham this morning (11 am) as the front was moving through the area. False alarm I take it. The area was around the small community of Billingsley.

 

[Kory]

Yeah, we should see a relatively quiet pattern for the next 7-10 days, but things look to change beyond that...