gangstonc
Member
Over the plains?There are many GFS ensembles showing a pretty active setup starting in June. The supercell composite numbers are pretty high.
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Over the plains?There are many GFS ensembles showing a pretty active setup starting in June. The supercell composite numbers are pretty high.
Over the plains?
Thanks for the heads up. I haven’t had time to look at anything in weeks.No, this doesn't look to be just limited to there or to our north. These significantly high numbers are showing across the Southeast too.
Naturally, the weekend I'm going camping/rafting on the Ocoee. Nonrefundable tickets.
Very poor shear on this sounding, but really explosive environment. Seems like a wind/hail event to me, granted possibly a quite notable one, especially considering dixie setups aren't very common at this time a year.Took this for Huntsville off the 12z GFS. By far the most explosive sounding for this area I have EVER seen.
Very poor shear on this sounding, but really explosive environment. Seems like a wind/hail event to me, granted possibly a quite notable one, especially considering dixie setups aren't very common at this time a year.
Yeah this may not be a tornado outbreak, but this is a supercell environment rarely seen around Dixie. This is usually reserved for areas such as Nebraska and Iowa.
I don't know. I'd definitely like to see a bit more turning with height for a supercell threat and bulk shear is rather meager. I'd say the threat here is if we get a cold pool established and end up with a high end MCS to Derecho threat with that NW flow. Definitely large hail will be a problem but with that very strong EML and insane cape, wind damage will be a huge threat if we get an MCS cranking. Another problem will also be the saturated ground.
Assuming I did the calculation right (I doubt it) the Derecho Composite would be around 12 for north AL on the GFS.
Edit: Looking at a few other Derecho events, 12 is blasted high.
In all fairness that is a volatile run the GFS showed, so it may not be out of reach.
I am a little concerned this could be a significant threat for us. Granted every now and then summer MCS season will roll out a nasty one.
FWIW while not as extreme with instability, the Euro has a very strong MCS moving across North to North Central AL in the same time frame.
Well this was rather unexpected...