February 2018 Discussion

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by Kory, Feb 1, 2018.

  1. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Another 2-3" overnight....this may be the drought ending pattern. Another 2-4" expected over the weekend. It wouldn't surprise me if some localized locations in Alabama reach a FOOT between last Sunday and this coming Sunday.

    Meanwhile, we're starting to see some significant flooding.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    Oh the sweet sound of thunder! I love it! It’s a great way to start the morning!
     
    #22 Taylor Campbell, Feb 7, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
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  3. MichelleH

    MichelleH Member

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    Yes!! I heard it here this morning about 3:30. Nice rumbles in the distance but there was one close "Earth-shattering kaboom" that made me look at radar! LOL
     
  4. StormStalker

    StormStalker Moderator
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    It's been cold today after the rain ended this morning. Its only 36 degrees after a high of 52 after midnight.
     
  5. Kory

    Kory Member

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    We're gonna be crying for the rain to stop in the next week.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Taylor Campbell

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    It looks like we are going to get a couple of days of return flow before each new storm system. That should help us to have instability with each passing front. Thunderstorms are going to be more common, and some localized rainfall amounts might exceed that of what Kory's map shows. Severe weather will also be a possibility. This is turning out to be a good February :)
     
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  7. David in SW Blount

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    I'm kind of surprised that so much of the area is still classified in pretty heavy duty drought conditions. I know we had a dry November and January, but December was pretty normal and we're well above normal for February. I know there are defined calculations for making the drought ratings, but it just doesn't seem "that bad." Could be the season, as a winter drought is not nearly as noticeable as one during the warmer seasons.
     
  8. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Calculating drought is a very complex and confusing process. The most common way is using the Standardized Precipitation Index or SPI. Here is a paper regarding the SPI...very stats heavy.

    http://drought.unl.edu/portals/0/docs/spi-program-alternative-method.pdf
     
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  9. South AL Wx

    South AL Wx Member
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    Also keep in mind that the drought monitor is based on data through 7 am EST Tuesday morning, so the heavy rainfall that occurred Tuesday night and Wednesday was not included in this week's drought monitor. That rainfall, and the upcoming rainfall this weekend, will be included in next week's drought monitor, so it could look a lot better.
     
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  10. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Longer range forecasts show that any prolonged cold snaps will be very unlikely over the next few weeks. Maybe even some 70s next week...

    Although the MJO has been and remains in unfavorable phases for warmer temps, it doesn't appear that the pattern is being driven solely by that. A lot of the cold from this upcoming SSW event is going to be spilled over Europe and Asia and not the U.S.
     
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  11. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Some 3-5" rainfall streaks according to the HRRRX over the next 48 hours. Keep an eye out for flooding.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Also, don't be surprised if we get a few strong to severe storms Saturday in South LA/MS/SW AL. Better instability MAY work up toward the Southern half of MS and AL for Sunday as a more cleared out warm sector takes hold, but kinematics and thermos look marginal.
     
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  13. Taylor Campbell

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    BMX has confirmed 6 tornadoes from Wednesday morning.
     
  14. KoD

    KoD Member
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    A couple of my favorite greenways in Huntsville that go along the creeks & rivers have a few large mud deposits on the trails from floodwaters, and that's from ~1-1.4" of rain. If we get the amount predicted by the models on top of the already high water level, there'll be some decent river flooding this weekend.
     
  15. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    it is also always interesting to see how close the water gets to Patton Road on the Arsenal just north of Redstone Road as Pinhook Creek sometimes floods the area. Matter of fact, there is water standing in the grassy areas by the road as we speak, so the ground is plenty saturated.
     
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  16. Taylor Campbell

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    The high res NAM is looking interesting for severe weather on Sunday.
     
  17. MichelleH

    MichelleH Member

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  18. apocalyptic_pleasures

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    Goodbye severe drought! 1 inch of rain yesterday evening and 5.68" today with rain still falling. Some river flood warning around the area for Dale and Geneva Counties and a couple of damaging tornado touchdowns reported last night across the border in Florida.

    Radar rain estimates so far

    [​IMG]
     
  19. barcncpt44

    barcncpt44 Member

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    I have gotten nearly 4 inches of rain in my rain gauge since Friday night. This weekend's rain event has pretty much ended the drought that was slowly getting worse.
     
  20. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Stuck in 40s and rain this afternoon....absolutely miserable.
     
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