Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

[Evan]

I wonder if we're going to see one of those East Alabama surprises tonight. Wouldn't be the first time things don't get going until after midnight, and when it does it happens over Eastern AL.

 

[Equus]

Alright well that discussion certainly answers some questions and makes sense based on radar trends, this is definitely not good news for the warm sector but right now storm mode is still a little questionable in most areas with lots of clustering; isolated cells would be big time red flags if the cap's being negated finally with the tremendous low level shear environment we got going on right now

 

[Chris3024]

There is an outflow showing southwest of Columbus radar. Looks to interact with the cells south of it here soon

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

This is like the 7th md discussion for bham today

 

[Equus]

Outflow boundaries are an unsettling wild card, don't like that

Meanwhile, in just twenty minutes...



Safe to say capping is not holding convection back much at the moment, how deep they can establish and if any can develop supercell structures becomes the question

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Outflow boundaries are an unsettling wild card, don't like that

Meanwhile, in just twenty minutes...

View attachment 11435View attachment 11436

Safe to say capping is not holding convection back much at the moment, how deep they can establish and if any can develop supercell structures becomes the question

Cullman to Gardendale will be the hot spot

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

the storms popping also are already going linear

 

[Equus]

Surface winds appear to be largely SSW which probably isn't helping them stay cellular either

 

[MichelleH]

Cullman to Gardendale will be the hot spot

Just peachy.

 

[Clancy]

Frum BMX's newest AFD.

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0932 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022/

Another record breaking day for high temperatures across central
Alabama with many locations in the lower 80s. Brisk south winds
15-25 mph continues to pump warm and moist air northward into
Alabama. Surface temperatures are still in the 70s at 9 pm this
evening with dewpoints in the upper 60s. 0-6km Bulk Shear and
0-3km helicity are still very favorable for the potential of
severe storms. The limiting factor so for is lack of forcing and
poor mid level lapse rates, which is why there has been minimal
lightning. Hi-res models are still hinting at an increase in
convection overnight, mainly along the I-20 corridor. Overall,
this is a low end severe event but still bears watching given
that many of the parameters needed for severe storms are present,
including the production of tornadoes.

 

[Richardjacks]

What worries me is that there isn't just one squall line ahead of the front. There are some a convergence limes that could provide so low level shear for a quick but strong spinup.

 

[Clancy]

WW #6 has expired as of 10 PM CST and no new watch is out yet (not that they won't yet issue one).

 

[MichelleH]

WW #6 has expired as of 10 PM CST and no new watch is out yet (not that they won't yet issue one).

I saw from a wx friend on Facebook that they are coordinating a new watch. Think he saw it in NWS chat.

 

[Equus]

Yeah it's being issued just not on the SPC site yet, encompasses pretty much all of central AL

WWUS from KWNS

 

[Clancy]

There it is.

 

[MichelleH]

Yeah it's being issued just not on the SPC site yet, encompasses pretty much all of central AL

WWUS from KWNS

Until 5 am. I'm sorry!

 

[Richardjacks]

Watching south of Oakman

 

[Bama Ravens]

Watching south of Oakman

That cell/group of showers has really struggled to get going so far.

 

[kcyalater]

Watching south of Oakman

looks like the mess to the southwest of it has choked and it now has uninhibited airmass

 

[brianc33710]

WW #6 has expired as of 10 PM CST and no new watch is out yet (not that they won't yet issue one).

They just issued a new watch. James Spann says he thinks theyll cancel much of it before 5 am. Maybe after midnite itll all be done.

WWA Summary by Location for 33.53N 86.8W with ALZ024/ALC073/ALZ024 emphasis Tornado Watch

forecast.weather.gov