Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Cindy

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Taylor Campbell, Jun 6, 2017.

?

Do you think Bret will develop?

  1. Yes

    11 vote(s)
    84.6%
  2. No

    2 vote(s)
    15.4%
  1. Beer Belly

    Beer Belly Member

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    Wow, no no idea where is it heading or how long it will take to get there. I imagine the models prediction of strength are also all over the board.
     
  2. Titan

    Titan Member
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    We're watching it closely in Gulf Shores. Especially with the degree of uncertainty.
     
  3. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Welcome to TalkWeather @Beer Belly!!
     
  4. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Recon cancelled today
     
  5. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    12z GFS doing crazy things with it:

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Really think this will be Cindy, also much better consensus on mostly LA today
     
  7. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    00z spaghetti model tracks:

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Titan

    Titan Member
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    Starting to look pretty wet for us if that verifies.
     
  9. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    A lot of the GFS ensembles show this going sub 1000mb.
     
  10. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    It looks to really get its act together overnight, and tomorrow. Significant weather impacts to the coastal areas of LA, MS, AL, and FL start in about 24 hours or less.
     
  11. JayF

    JayF Administrator
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  12. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    That is N817NA flying out in the Gulf at the moment. I've been on board that DC-8 when they were running the OLYMPEX project off the coast of the pacific northwest. Here are a few pictures. Basically this aircraft has ports on the top, bottom and sides where they can load instruments that fly on weather satellites for testing of new technologies and calibration purposes. They also had access to an ER-2 aka first cousin to U-2. I'll do a write up about it sometime soon.

    https://pmm.nasa.gov/olympex


    12240120_10156452742080144_7670219287142330473_n.jpg 12240136_10156452742265144_2326602609256060576_n.jpg 12241592_10156452741900144_4853336289443705360_n.jpg 12246955_10156452741760144_876743765000491443_n.jpg 12241235_10156452741640144_2716332926555146882_n.jpg 12241748_10156452741305144_2308864040916931465_n.jpg
     
    #32 WesL, Jun 19, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
    Greyhound and KoD like this.
  13. JayF

    JayF Administrator
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    Next time you get a tour like this and want to drag me along, I am game. :)
     
  14. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Special Message from NHC Issued 19 Jun 2017 20:38 UTC
    NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
     
  15. Daryl

    Daryl Member

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    Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
    400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City,
    Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
    to High Island, Texas.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * West of Intracoastal City to High Island

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
    next 24 to 36 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
    coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
    of this system.

    At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
    24.7 North, longitude 88.7 West. The system is moving toward the
    north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is
    expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the northwest
    on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the
    disturbance will move toward the Louisiana coast on Tuesday and
    Wednesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches
    the coast.

    Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some
    additional development of this system during the next day or two,
    and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that
    time.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
    to the north and east of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
    coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
    are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

    RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
    accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10
    inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and
    Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday
    evening.
     
    #35 Daryl, Jun 19, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
  16. Daryl

    Daryl Member

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  17. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    18z GFS loop:

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    7 day QPF from WPC

    [​IMG]
     
  19. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    How will this system impact the weather in north Alabama this weekend?
     
  20. Beer Belly

    Beer Belly Member

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    Is the center of circulation ~75 miles east of where they are indicating the center/lowest pressure? Monday 9:30 EST
     

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