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Spring 2017 Severe Weather.

Will the season be...

  • Above average

    Votes: 26 61.9%
  • Average

    Votes: 13 31.0%
  • Below average

    Votes: 3 7.1%

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00z GFS went insane for Sunday evening with numerous PDS TOR soundings across OK at hour 144. You don't see that too often on the GFS, usually just on the always bullish NAM/4K NAM. Then it brings another ominous setup for next Tuesday evening with lapse rates to almost 8.5c/km.

06z run continues with the threat for Sunday, Tuesday has shifted/backed off somewhat which is to be expected at that range. So far I don't see anything obvious for the upper Midwest in this upcoming western troughing pattern. 00z showed some potential into IL Monday evening but nothing too spectacular. Would like a chase opportunity soon, something like a 2/28 or 3/6 with better moisture and longer daylight. However, the impact of those setups didn't really become apparent until closer range. It wasn't until well into NAM range that the potential for tornadic supercells over C/N IL on 2/28 became apparent.
 

Meteorologist Bobby Best

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Is it me or is the 12Z GFS backing off a bit on Sunday?

No, it has backed way off! Additionally, for Saturday, in my area (West, Alabama) it looks like we may luck up and only see showers and a few thundershowers, as opposed to what things were looking like just 24-48 hours ago, with a wind and hail potential.....
 

Kory

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Next week looks very active per models and ensembles. Rather large, low amplitude jet streak coming across the Pacific and large scale troughing digging into the West/Central States. Perfect positioning of surface high pressure and ridging off the SE US coast will provide great flow from the Gulf/Caribbean for the warm sector.

iYno4aw.png
 
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Xenesthis

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Next week looks very active per models and ensembles. Rather large, low amplitude jet streak coming across the Pacific and large scale troughing digging into the West/Central States. Perfect positioning of surface high pressure and ridging off the SE US coast will provide great flow from the Gulf/Caribbean for the warm sector.

Yep and this is the system that has my full attention and has the potential to be a large scale event!
iYno4aw.png
 
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Just fantasy at this range, but loving that double-barreled low look at the end of the 12z run (prior 06z run also had a similar looking solution) that puts pretty much the whole Plains and Midwest into play. CAPE not overly impressive, but the warm/moist sector is huge. I'm still bewildered at the role-reversal of the models for this coming Sunday. Usually the GFS lowballs CAPE/moisture and then the NAM comes in and says Armageddon is coming, PDS TOR everywhere, and the usual outcome is somewhere in between.
 

MichelleH

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Thursday, March 30, is looking interesting. SPC already has part of Dixie Alley with a 15% severe chance on the Day 4 and BMX has a 2 out of 5 for tornadoes on this morning's HWO.
 

Taylor Campbell

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The model spread is too large to have much confidence in next week's severe threats, but it has big potential per a handful of ensemble members and a few operational model runs. It's a period we need to watch very closely.
 

Kory

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The model spread is too large to have much confidence in next week's severe threats, but it has big potential per a handful of ensemble members and a few operational model runs. It's a period we need to watch very closely.
Yep, next week could have one, if not two, potential system(s). This is the active pattern we've been talking about.

And then sig troughing moves into the GOA and Pac NW from the Bering Sea/Aleutian region. Continues to look very active....
 
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Watching for the day when it looks like I should ask off work in advance. Itching for another solid setup in the Midwest, but will be watching the roads extra carefully while chasing in light of yesterday's events.

Meanwhile, SPC's main reason for holding back on upgrading today to MDT was lingering clouds/showers from last night's convection. Looking at vis. sat, the clouds over E. OK/AR/MO seem to be fairly thin already. Wouldn't be surprised to see them erode fairly quickly. Certainly seen thicker cirrus shields over the prime threat area the morning of a potential severe weather event.
 

NWMSGuy

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Watching for the day when it looks like I should ask off work in advance. Itching for another solid setup in the Midwest, but will be watching the roads extra carefully while chasing in light of yesterday's events.

Meanwhile, SPC's main reason for holding back on upgrading today to MDT was lingering clouds/showers from last night's convection. Looking at vis. sat, the clouds over E. OK/AR/MO seem to be fairly thin already. Wouldn't be surprised to see them erode fairly quickly. Certainly seen thicker cirrus shields over the prime threat area the morning of a potential severe weather event.
This is exactly what I'm facing with work lol. I don't really chase but do watch and track from MBY. I'm on the western edge of the Moderate Risk area for tomorrow here in Northwest MS and also wondering if Monday would be in play for my location. I have scheduled to leave both days at 10AM lol. Will cancel if it looks like the threats will diminish even more.
 
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Midweek next week could go either way. GFS has started to come around to wanting to recover the moisture into the OV/Dixie Alley fairly rapidly behind the Sunday-Monday system, although it probably won't recover in time for Plains chasers on Tuesday.

Sometime in the April 9-11 range also has my attention on the GFS. It has been pretty consistent with a large trough/surface system around that timeframe for a few runs now, and it looks like it should have fewer moisture issues for the Plains/Midwest then we've seen so far.
 
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Soundings not available yet but still looks like t-h-e not-most-reliable-model-ever wants to bring t-h-e pain to Dixie Alley and t-h-e OV next Wednesday on rapid moisture return after t-h-e early week system.
 

Mike S

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Soundings not available yet but still looks like t-h-e not-most-reliable-model-ever wants to bring t-h-e pain to Dixie Alley and t-h-e OV next Wednesday on rapid moisture return after t-h-e early week system.

We're going to look back on this post in a couple of years and wonder why in the world were you typing that way!
 
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