NWMSGuy
Member
What are your current thoughts regarding the 3/29 system?This Saturday's system doesn't really have me concerned..... However next Wednesday 3/29 has my full attention even this far out
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What are your current thoughts regarding the 3/29 system?This Saturday's system doesn't really have me concerned..... However next Wednesday 3/29 has my full attention even this far out
Is it me or is the 12Z GFS backing off a bit on Sunday?
Next week looks very active per models and ensembles. Rather large, low amplitude jet streak coming across the Pacific and large scale troughing digging into the West/Central States. Perfect positioning of surface high pressure and ridging off the SE US coast will provide great flow from the Gulf/Caribbean for the warm sector.
Yep and this is the system that has my full attention and has the potential to be a large scale event!
Just made a thread on that system. Open trough kicking out into an established warm sector....Thursday, March 30, is looking interesting. SPC already has part of Dixie Alley with a 15% severe chance on the Day 4 and BMX has a 2 out of 5 for tornadoes on this morning's HWO.
Yep, next week could have one, if not two, potential system(s). This is the active pattern we've been talking about.The model spread is too large to have much confidence in next week's severe threats, but it has big potential per a handful of ensemble members and a few operational model runs. It's a period we need to watch very closely.
This is exactly what I'm facing with work lol. I don't really chase but do watch and track from MBY. I'm on the western edge of the Moderate Risk area for tomorrow here in Northwest MS and also wondering if Monday would be in play for my location. I have scheduled to leave both days at 10AM lol. Will cancel if it looks like the threats will diminish even more.Watching for the day when it looks like I should ask off work in advance. Itching for another solid setup in the Midwest, but will be watching the roads extra carefully while chasing in light of yesterday's events.
Meanwhile, SPC's main reason for holding back on upgrading today to MDT was lingering clouds/showers from last night's convection. Looking at vis. sat, the clouds over E. OK/AR/MO seem to be fairly thin already. Wouldn't be surprised to see them erode fairly quickly. Certainly seen thicker cirrus shields over the prime threat area the morning of a potential severe weather event.
Soundings not available yet but still looks like t-h-e not-most-reliable-model-ever wants to bring t-h-e pain to Dixie Alley and t-h-e OV next Wednesday on rapid moisture return after t-h-e early week system.