Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

[warneagle]

We are probably gonna wind up with far more tornado warnings and reports today than yesterday. SPC has not exactly been spot-on, lol.

Yeah this 2%/slight risk is gonna outperform the 15% hatched/moderate risk. #2017ing

 

[buckeye05]

Big time debris signature. That is doing damage.

 

[warneagle]

Big time debris signature. That is doing damage.

Thankfully this is almost completely unpopulated area. It's going to stay well north of the only two towns in that county. If it moves into Crawford County though, Roberta (1,000 people) could be in trouble.

 

[Blizzzzznado]

Will be interesting to watch. We have a few breaks in the clouds here. I think there is a chance that line forming back to the NW could have some severe storms later.

A decent line is forming to my west and at 76/68 on temp and dew point, so never know.

 

[Blizzzzznado]

From WLTZ Weather out of Columbus 3m -

TORNADO EMERGENCY NORTHERN TAYLOR! This is a life-threatening situation. Will cross Hwy 19 near Flint River bridge.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Might be seeing the beginnings of a hook echo NW of Oak Mountain, GA. Not tornado warned.

Yeah this 2%/slight risk is gonna outperform the 15% hatched/moderate risk. #2017ing

#marginalisthenewmoderate

 

[buckeye05]

Looks to have dissipated to the southwest of Salem, GA. Hopefully the overall messy storm mode should prevent it from cycling.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yeah this 2%/slight risk is gonna outperform the 15% hatched/moderate risk. #2017ing

oh great, I hope that doesn't cause them to go nuts on the next threat

 

[warneagle]

Which Taylor? MS or AL?

Neither. Georgia. Looks like it may have lifted. Like I said, it's a very rural area.

Edit: the new warning for Crawford and Taylor is PDS and says large and extremely dangerous tornado. Doesn't look like much on radar anymore.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Neither. Georgia. Looks like it may have lifted. Like I said, it's a very rural area.

Okay, thanks. It did have one heck of a debris signature though...hopefully trees/vegetation and not pieces of homes.

 

[bwalk]

Tornado warning extended for Carsonville (Ga) area. Peachtree City NWS refers to this as a "large and extremely dangerous tornado" but it is radar indicated. The couplet looks somewhat diffuse on radar but there may be recycling involved at the time of the scan.There is a debris ball associated with this tornado (per buckeye05). Any reports of ground verification as to damage?

 

[bwalk]

My bad, warneagle. I didn't see your last post.

 

[warneagle]

I have no idea where Carsonville is and I grew up about 40 miles from this warning. I'm not sure that's even a real place.

 

[warneagle]

Okay, thanks. It did have one heck of a debris signature though...hopefully trees/vegetation and not pieces of homes.

I would imagine it's mostly trees. It would've passed close to the junction of US-80 and US-19, and crossed GA-96, which is a fairly major highway, but very few people actually live out there.

 

[warneagle]

Maybe a new circulation wrapping up back south of US-80 east of Columbus?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I would imagine it's mostly trees. It would've passed close to the junction of US-80 and US-19, and crossed GA-96, which is a fairly major highway, but very few people actually live out there.

Definitely not a lot of houses (like neighborhoods, and house next to next), but there are some there on Google maps.

 

[warneagle]

Definitely not a lot of houses (like neighborhoods, and house next to next), but there are some there on Google maps.

Yeah, I used to drive through the area a good bit in college (easiest way to get to Auburn from Warner Robins). There are a few farmhouses and barns and such out that way. It certainly missed the most densely populated areas, though (Butler and Reynolds). Let's hope it doesn't recycle as it approaches the Macon metro area.

 

[buckeye05]

Maybe a new circulation wrapping up back south of US-80 east of Columbus?

I noticed that as well. Seems to be weakening for now, but worth watching for sure.

 

[buckeye05]

I also have my eye on the small cells training in from Alabama. Not exactly robust, but they are definitely trying to rotate.

 

[warneagle]

I noticed that as well. Seems to be weakening for now, but worth watching for sure.

Yeah, that worries me because it would track almost right down GA-96, which would threaten several little towns in a row (Geneva and Junction City are very small, but Butler and Reynolds are a bit larger). My IMBY concern is Fort Valley, where my dad's business is located.