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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

Kory

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That bad??
It's coming in a bit more threatening just glancing at the synoptic set up. I haven't seen the 6 hr maps yet, but it's closing off and seems to be bringing better upper level support over the warm sector. Questions as of yesterday were the quality of mid level lapse rates and 500 mb orientation. We will have a well established low level moisture regime.
 

Richardjacks

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It's coming in a bit more threatening just glancing at the synoptic set up. I haven't seen the 6 hr maps yet, but it's closing off and seems to be bringing better upper level support over the warm sector. Questions as of yesterday were the quality of mid level lapse rates and 500 mb orientation. We will have a well established low level moisture regime.
I agree.. there are still some questions about the mid level lapse rates...but there are some concerning factors here. A deep closed low moving into the southeast with what should be juicy low levels and and some low level turning. Just those elements alone on the first of May should create concern...I imagine we will see some trends over the next day or two that might be more telling.
 
X

Xenesthis

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Looking at some of the soundings for middle TN. It seems like we are very close to this being an issue. Critical angle around 70... Other parameters need to increase
 

warneagle

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not good when things look like a cool season event aloft but it is practically May.
No, definitely not. This is one of the first times this year where the discussion going into the event is conditional more on the thermodynamics than the dynamics, it feels like.
 
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