Equus
Member
Marginal, even, until 1630z. What a yearYeah this 2%/slight risk is gonna outperform the 15% hatched/moderate risk. #2017ing
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Marginal, even, until 1630z. What a yearYeah this 2%/slight risk is gonna outperform the 15% hatched/moderate risk. #2017ing
Not to take away from the ongoing threat today, but the Euro for Sunday/Monday....
First time I can remember a watch with 50/30 probs on a 2% risk day.Marginal, even, until 1630z. What a year
It's coming in a bit more threatening just glancing at the synoptic set up. I haven't seen the 6 hr maps yet, but it's closing off and seems to be bringing better upper level support over the warm sector. Questions as of yesterday were the quality of mid level lapse rates and 500 mb orientation. We will have a well established low level moisture regime.That bad??
I agree.. there are still some questions about the mid level lapse rates...but there are some concerning factors here. A deep closed low moving into the southeast with what should be juicy low levels and and some low level turning. Just those elements alone on the first of May should create concern...I imagine we will see some trends over the next day or two that might be more telling.It's coming in a bit more threatening just glancing at the synoptic set up. I haven't seen the 6 hr maps yet, but it's closing off and seems to be bringing better upper level support over the warm sector. Questions as of yesterday were the quality of mid level lapse rates and 500 mb orientation. We will have a well established low level moisture regime.
Oh boy. It's a close match looking at 500mb...NAM 18z sounding for BHM has SARS BHM 11/24/2001
As a novice, this is one of the things I look for. I remember 4/11/7 kicking out 11/10/02 analogs.not good when things look like a cool season event aloft but it is practically May.
No, definitely not. This is one of the first times this year where the discussion going into the event is conditional more on the thermodynamics than the dynamics, it feels like.not good when things look like a cool season event aloft but it is practically May.