Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/23-3/27 Weekend or Whatever

[Bama Ravens]

3km NAM has this thing looking pretty blah in Alabama. Most action that does occur in AL, occurs over far west AL.

 

[MikeP]

3km NAM has this thing looking pretty blah in Alabama. Most action that does occur in AL, occurs over far west AL.

So thats for Sunday?

 

[MikeP]

Anybody wanna comment on tomorrows potential? latest models runs, etc?......

 

[Bama Ravens]

So thats for Sunday?

That would be 8:00pm CDT Saturday, but the new run just came out and I'm about to post it.

 

[Bama Ravens]

3km NAM valid at 6:00pm CDT tomorrow evening.

 

[Xenesthis]

3km NAM valid at 6:00pm CDT tomorrow evening.

Northern most extent has the highest tornado threat... Tennessee valley heads up.... Bad outbreak no but a couple significant tornadoes seem likely

 

[Bama Ravens]

HRRR is faster than the NAM, brings line through Tuscaloosa and approaching Birmingham by 3:00 pm CDT.

 

[Bama Ravens]

HRRR suggests additional storms building behind the line this afternoon. There are better CAPE values over central and western MS. Atmosphere over AL may not have time to recover to allow these additional storms to form here.

 

[Kory]

Main thing that went wrong yesterday....we were dealing with a occluded trough. Once that thing becomes vertically stacked, wind fields become all wonky. It doesn't always mean a lesser severe wx chance as we've had several occluded troughs produce quite the severe event in Dixie (4/15/2011 and 5/28/73), it was the fashion in which it ejected.

Monday looks like an interesting day. Very subtle shortwave ejects from the Plains eastward with steep lapse rates 6.5-7.5 C/KM. Looks like capping most of the day, but when that breaks with forcing later in the afternoon, a few storms will erupt across MS and Western TN and move east with time. Cape will be well above 1000 J/KG because of the capping earlier in the day. Could be a few big hailers. That's a hail sounding off the GFS (from West/Central AL) and look at those lapse rates! Weaker low level shear values will likely preclude a tornado threat....

 

[TornadoFan]

SPC just pulled the trigger for a moderate risk today. Tornadoes expected as well, with a 10% area added.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[ARCC]

Main thing that went wrong yesterday....we were dealing with a occluded trough. Once that thing becomes vertically stacked, wind fields become all wonky. It doesn't always mean a lesser severe wx chance as we've had several occluded troughs produce quite the severe event in Dixie (4/15/2011 and 5/28/73), it was the fashion in which it ejected.

Monday looks like an interesting day. Very subtle shortwave ejects from the Plains eastward with steep lapse rates 6.5-7.5 C/KM. Looks like capping most of the day, but when that breaks with forcing later in the afternoon, a few storms will erupt across MS and Western TN and move east with time. Cape will be well above 1000 J/KG because of the capping earlier in the day. Could be a few big hailers. That's a hail sounding off the GFS (from West/Central AL) and look at those lapse rates! Weaker low level shear values will likely preclude a tornado threat....

Yeah I'm really liking the Monday threat for supercells and hail. Those western winds at 500mb scream supercells. Should see some beautiful storm pictures and some not so beautiful ones of broken windshields.

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest NAM finally shows moisture in Oklahoma. Dewpoints up to the mid sixties.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Might as well tack tomorrow's date onto this thread, as well.


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather

 

[WesL]

Might as well tack tomorrow's date onto this thread, as well.


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather

Done or whatever

 

[Jetstream]

 

[GTWXAlum]

First storm of the day is popping now in Stephens County Oklahoma, right over the town of Velma. Lightning increasing quickly with that storm

 

[SilentShadow87]

Two fairly isolated cells in S Oklahoma tracking east, but they're in close enough proximity that there could be a fair bit of leeching going on.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning just to the south of Ada, OK.

 

[WesL]

Some interesting video of the storm near Denton, TX.