[WX4NLJ]

Yep, thats a 158.7mph gust. Highest sustained I saw was 135knt (155mph) sustained.

[SWL]

143 kt!!!

022530 1741N 07848W 6966 02825 9990 +081 +999 056139 143 101 013 05

[beaudodson]

Live weather from Cayman Island

http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=I90580545

[klaxon]

small pressure drop from prev pass too

021900 1727N 07832W 6960 02525 9270 +173 +148 178022 026 031 005 03
021930 1728N 07834W 6972 02497 9257 +173 +148 164004 011 022 004 00
022000 1728N 07836W 6968 02495 9257 +164 +150 027007 013 016 004 03
022030 1729N 07837W 6971 02488 9266 +149 +149 022027 031 029 004 03

[SWL]

...DEAN STILL BATTERING JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.

[SWL]

URNT12 KNHC 200243
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/02:19:30Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. 107 kt
E. 128 deg 9 nm
F. 224 deg 108 kt
G. 128 deg 009 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3019 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 143 KT NW QUAD 02:25:30 Z
STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER

[HeeBGBz]

STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER

That must be very beautiful to witness.

I wonder how much the slowing of the ULL and the approach of Dean will have on the future tracks.

[klaxon]

About 12 minutes out:

This post has been edited by klaxon: 19 August 2007 - 10:44 PM

[bjd]

That must be very beautiful to witness.

Must be worth the ride in, about, and out. There was one report in 2005 -- was it in Katrina? -- of a stadium effect in the moonlight. Right now, the only photo they have on their image page is one looking UP the eyewall of Ivan. I'm sorry -- but they'd have to shoot me up with thorazine or something to get me on one of those flights.

They do say the page is a work in progress -- if it's possible to translate those sights into images, hopefully, we'll get to see them ourselves some day.

A very surprisingStorm Carib report of just light rain from Dean in Haiti, even on the south coast, and no reports heard (at that time anyway) of flooding. People have been saying this is a "wind" hurricane, not a "rain" one. It's still a dangerous storm, any way you look at it. Wonder what the sea damage was in Jamaica and St. Thomas. Hope the Caymans will do all right.

SNM, the Mexican weather service, now has a note up: "At this moment, the forecast track indicates that the cyclone will strike the coasts of Quintana Roo [the Mexican state that includes the Yucatan Peninsula] as a Category 5 early Tuesday morning." (I think "early morning" is a good translation for "madrugada" -- have never been quite sure of that, though.)


Barb

This post has been edited by CatLady: 19 August 2007 - 10:34 PM

[Mygulfparadise]

Must be worth the ride in, about, and out. There was one report in 2005 -- was it in Katrina? -- of a stadium effect in the moonlight. Right now, the only photo they have on their image page is one looking UP the eyewall of Ivan. I'm sorry -- but they'd have to shoot me up with thorazine or something to get me on one of those flights.

They do say the page is a work in progress -- if it's possible to translate those sights into images, hopefully, we'll get to see them ourselves some day.

A very surprisingStorm Carib report of just light rain from Dean in Haiti, even on the south coast, and no reports heard (at that time anyway) of flooding. People have been saying this is a "wind" hurricane, not a "rain" one. It's still a dangerous storm, any way you look at it. Wonder what the sea damage was in Jamaica and St. Thomas. Hope the Caymans will do all right.

SNM, the Mexican weather service, now has a note up: "At this moment, the forecast track indicates that the cyclone will strike the coasts of Quintana Roo [the Mexican state that includes the Yucatan Peninsula] as a Category 5 early Tuesday morning." (I think "early morning" is a good translation for "madrugada" -- have never been quite sure of that, though.)
Barb

I'll try to get some good pictures from our flights into Dean and post them for everyone.

[Mygulfparadise]

Must be worth the ride in, about, and out. There was one report in 2005 -- was it in Katrina? -- of a stadium effect in the moonlight. Right now, the only photo they have on their image page is one looking UP the eyewall of Ivan. I'm sorry -- but they'd have to shoot me up with thorazine or something to get me on one of those flights.

It is one H*** of a ride, with a pucker factor of 10.

[BlountWolf]

Time sensitive - 25 frame animation that shows the interaction with Jamaica from approach to present.

**Warning - better have broadband and your java working well.**

http://weather.hawai...amp;overlay=off

[RSanders]

Do you guys think the speed of this hurricane has effected the possible damage in Jamaica? If so, in a good or bad way?

I am sure this is pretty much common since, since the quicker it gets in there, the quicker it gets out, but I am sure there could also be more to it than that. I would have to guess that it only helps, considering the amount of time hurricane winds are present is lessened, but again, maybe the extra speed adds more wind?

[klaxon]

034830 1750N 07859W 6973 02851 9728 +081 +081 095143 144 100 021 00

[Mygulfparadise]

Press release from Jamaica.

DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM COMMUNITIES IN THE FOLLOWING PARISHES:

1. St. Thomas:
Extensive damage has been reported from several communities within the parish of St. Thomas. Significant wind damage to roofs, storm surges, flooding, collapsed structures, impassable roadways are among the many reports.

2. St. James:
The community of Coral Gardens is severely affected by wind damage.

3. Kingston and St. Andrew:
Severe wind damage and downed power lines in the Riverton city area. Also, a fallen tree caused the collapse of a residential building in the Chambers Lane Area of Liganea, St. Andrew.

4. Clarendon:
Flooding has been reported from the Denbigh gully.

5. Portland:
Several roadways in Port Antonio, Manchioneal, Mount James and Mount Airy in Buff Bay are blocked.

6. St. Mary:
Several roadways from Junction to Broadgate are impassable due to fallen trees.

7. St. Catherine:
Storm surges have been reported along the Port Henderson road in Portmore rendering the roadway impassable along with roof damage in the communities of Naggo Head and Newland. The Newland Road is also impassable due to a fallen utility pole. Additionally, sections of the roadway have been eroded in Hellshire due to storm surges and rising water levels have been reported in Old Harbour forcing the evacuation of several persons.


DAMAGE TO CRITICAL FACILITIES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. Telecommunications
Cellular telephone lines are down in sections of Portland, St. Mary, and Clarendon and there is currently no communication link with the parish of St. Thomas. Efforts are underway to re-establish communication links with St. Thomas as soon as possible.

2. Electricity
Well over 125,000 JPS customers are without power supply.

3. Water Supply
There have been reports of damage to water supply systems.

[Colby]

Is the eye filling AGAIN?

[Drew]

The Cayman Island weather station that is posted on the Webcams/Wx Stations post is already reporting a sustained wind of 38 mph gusting to 46. They will be in for one heck of a ride after midnight tonight and early tomorrow morning. Direct link here http://caymanchillin...in-weather.html

[Matt Grantham]

Looks like the storm could be hitting the higher heat content now with more reds showing up in the CDO.
The CDO is almost a perfect circle now.

This post has been edited by Matt Grantham: 19 August 2007 - 11:42 PM

[NO_WAA]

DAMAGE TO CRITICAL FACILITIES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. Telecommunications
Cellular telephone lines are down in sections of Portland, St. Mary, and Clarendon and there is currently no communication link with the parish of St. Thomas. Efforts are underway to re-establish communication links with St. Thomas as soon as possible.

One of Digicel's Kingston STPs is isolated from our network. They have another that is in service. i'm looking at it right now.

[NO_WAA]

Looks like the storm could be hitting the higher heat content now with more reds showing up in the CDO.
The CDO is almost a perfect circle now.

I noticed that as well. could be a tell tale sign of strengthening.

[klaxon]

Recon inbound from the West now.



Yellow dots are at 2 minute intervals. Red dots are points of min pressure each pass.

[ES5NHC]

I'll try to get some good pictures from our flights into Dean and post them for everyone.

You are in the recon flight team?

BTW, how do you get these recon flight tracks?

This post has been edited by Tarmo Tanilsoo: 20 August 2007 - 12:27 AM

[SWL]

...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TODAY...

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

[bjd]

I'll try to get some good pictures from our flights into Dean and post them for everyone.

Oh, Lord. I never would have said that about the Web page had I realized there was a Hunter on board (note to myself: read sig lines and pay attention to atavars more closely from now on).

Thank you, but you all have much better things to be doing right now. Thorazine is probably not a good idea, but I'd buy you all a beer after this were over, if I were down there. Good luck, thank you for helping us all out, and may you all have many good flights and beautiful sights all over the world.

Barb

[htbaseballfan088]

I have a feeling this is gonna explode up to 165 mph