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The SD Storm Jan 1st-4th 2014.


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#31 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 01:28 PM

View PostStarburst, on 23 December 2013 - 01:20 PM, said:



Not sure what I'm not seeing here.  I'm probably looking at the wrong time frame.  Further on there are many that do but it seems like a diff storm than the thread timing?  Seems there may be multiple threats.

Yeah if look at the members its seems there would be to threats

#32 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 01:38 PM

12z EURO already playing right to the GFS son far....through 168

#33 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 01:43 PM

Now its trying to crap out of ridge out west at 192 ...energy entering so cal ....let's see where this goes

#34 Starburst

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 02:07 PM

Looks like cold is around (especially the eastern SE states) with a system approaching from TX trying to get stronger by 240.  Not a horrible look imo.  (euro)

Edited by Starburst, 23 December 2013 - 02:07 PM.

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#35 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 02:16 PM

View PostStarburst, on 23 December 2013 - 02:07 PM, said:

Looks like cold is around (especially the eastern SE states) with a system approaching from TX trying to get stronger by 240.  Not a horrible look imo.  (euro)

Not horrible....but not as good as the GFS...but hey the storm signal is there

#36 Mason Dixon

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 02:24 PM

View PostSD, on 23 December 2013 - 11:52 AM, said:

Have at it. I think something potentially huge is coming in this period. Lets just hope we can cash in and it doesnt trend NW. Ill make a better post later.

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#37 superjames1992

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 02:38 PM

Is it just me or are 850s pretty warm for almost all of us (even here for the most part), per the 12z GFS?  There is definitely a CAD signature that would keep surface temperatures a bit chilly, though.

With that being said, the track is pretty great, so I'll take it.

Edited by superjames1992, 23 December 2013 - 02:40 PM.

Winter 2013-2014
First Freeze: 10/26
Last Freeze: 4/17
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#38 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 02:43 PM

View Postsuperjames1992, on 23 December 2013 - 02:38 PM, said:

Is it just me or are 850s pretty warm for almost all of us (even here for the most part), per the 12z GFS?  There is definitely a CAD signature that would keep surface temperatures a bit chilly, though.

With that being said, the track is pretty great, so I'll take it.
850s are warm for ga sc and nc and parts of north Alabama .....but hell who would not take this look at this point. Too early to worry about 850s

#39 superjames1992

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 02:52 PM

View Poststorm5, on 23 December 2013 - 02:43 PM, said:

850s are warm for ga sc and nc and parts of north Alabama .....but hell who would not take this look at this point. Too early to worry about 850s

True.  Verbatim, it looks like SN to RN to SN here (although if 2m temps are cold enough, maybe IP/ZR instead of RN?).  I see the GEFS Mean is a little faster than the op, but more suppressed.  I will take that at this point.

I'm not a huge fan of the timing on the op, either.  I have a pretty short window to make my connection in Philadelphia on January 4th, so I'm not sure if a major snowstorm on January 3rd is going to help, LOL!

EDIT: I just saw the 12z GFS clown map.  LOL, that is ridiculous for SW VA and the Memphis area.  9-10" here on the clown.  The clown is very unkind to GA.

Edited by superjames1992, 23 December 2013 - 02:59 PM.

Winter 2013-2014
First Freeze: 10/26
Last Freeze: 4/17
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#40 Starburst

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 03:19 PM

If only we can keep the suppression to an extent so the cold air won't have a battle especially here in SC..  and then have it get LA-GA and then turn up the coast and get NC..  That would be the best scenario I could see. ;/  The track of the low looks more climo for mby on the GEFS median.  Doesn't seem to turn up the coast until its too far out for a lot of NC though.  Thankfully this system is far out there and much will change for the better most likely with that cold air right over most of us.

Edited by Starburst, 23 December 2013 - 03:20 PM.

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#41 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 03:27 PM

If you look at the northern hemisphere on the gfs and euro the difference is the gfs develops a much stronger block than on the euro. Time will tell. But with blocking you get runs like the 12z gfs

#42 KVW

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 03:28 PM

Yeah, suppression at this point is good! You do not want to be in the bullseye at 5-10 days out, because it will always change . But all the models have a good look at this point!

#43 SD

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 03:45 PM

Euro looks fine. Clippers is bringing in a new cold airmass pv sHould hold anything south. Western ridge is rebuilding at d10. Remember guys those 850s proceeding a storm are temps not wetbulbs. With the arctic characteristics of these airmass wetbulbs will be lower
"Ill take my bullseye and run with it. You superstitious suckers to the west will be frowning 6 days from now" -Myself Jan 23 2014

#44 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 03:57 PM

View PostSD, on 23 December 2013 - 03:45 PM, said:

Euro looks fine. Clippers is bringing in a new cold airmass pv sHould hold anything south. Western ridge is rebuilding at d10. Remember guys those 850s proceeding a storm are temps not wetbulbs. With the arctic characteristics of these airmass wetbulbs will be lower

Should....the only word that stood out to me

Edited by storm5, 23 December 2013 - 04:00 PM.


#45 SD

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 04:04 PM

View Poststorm5, on 23 December 2013 - 03:57 PM, said:



Should....the only word that stood out to me
You now how it is. We live in the south
"Ill take my bullseye and run with it. You superstitious suckers to the west will be frowning 6 days from now" -Myself Jan 23 2014

#46 wxfan22

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 04:10 PM

I say after every storm that I won't get excited beyond 96 hours.... But the 240 hour storm still gets me every single time. I'm such a sucker.




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#47 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 04:11 PM

View PostSD, on 23 December 2013 - 04:04 PM, said:


You now how it is. We live in the south

Amen brother

#48 superjames1992

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 04:25 PM

View Postwxfan22, on 23 December 2013 - 04:10 PM, said:

I say after every storm that I won't get excited beyond 96 hours.... But the 240 hour storm still gets me every single time. I'm such a sucker.




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+1000000000000000000000000000000000000.

I think Waycross gets 12-18" while we all get 20 degrees and sunny. :(







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Edited by superjames1992, 23 December 2013 - 04:25 PM.

Winter 2013-2014
First Freeze: 10/26
Last Freeze: 4/17
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#49 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 04:52 PM

Euro ensembles look better than the OP

#50 superjames1992

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 04:53 PM

*Obligatory Reference*

Posted Image
Winter 2013-2014
First Freeze: 10/26
Last Freeze: 4/17
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#51 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:02 PM

We are still 40+ gfs runs away ....imagine the different looks , excitement and disappointment we will get over the next week

#52 Tyler Penland

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:03 PM

View PostStarburst, on 23 December 2013 - 01:10 PM, said:

Tempering my enthusiasm. :p


Not a bad idea for a storm still post-truncation.
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#53 Met1985

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:41 PM

Storm or no storm we are going to get very cold. What a trough coming in for the East just something we have not seen for a couple of years that deep laced with arctic air. I can honestly say with accuracy THIS is the real deal. The Teleconnections are lining up and we have support from the ens members.

Edited by Met1985, 23 December 2013 - 05:43 PM.


#54 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:42 PM

18z develops multiple waves along the front

#55 superjames1992

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:51 PM

The 18z GFS is UGLY here.  It shows a major snowstorm followed by a major ice storm on 1/2-1/3!
Winter 2013-2014
First Freeze: 10/26
Last Freeze: 4/17
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#56 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:52 PM

View Postsuperjames1992, on 23 December 2013 - 05:51 PM, said:

The 18z GFS is UGLY here.  It shows a major snowstorm followed by a major ice storm on 1/2-1/3!

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder ....that's sexy to me

#57 superjames1992

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 05:52 PM

View Poststorm5, on 23 December 2013 - 05:52 PM, said:

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder ....that's sexy to me

I meant ugly in a good way. :)

Though I could do without the major ice storm part, haha.  I'll take it if it allows a major snowstorm, though.

InstantWeatherMaps clown shows 3"+ from CLT to RDU north and west and ~8"+ north and west of the Triad.  From what I've seen, InstantWeatherMaps' clown map is typically pretty stingy, too.

It's Happy Hour! ;)

Edited by superjames1992, 23 December 2013 - 05:58 PM.

Winter 2013-2014
First Freeze: 10/26
Last Freeze: 4/17
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#58 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 06:03 PM

hey storm or anyone..lol.. i am having trouble with gfs for some reason... missiing data... what does it look like for west tennessee? the storm after newyears?

#59 storm5

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 06:11 PM

View Posttennessee storm chaser, on 23 December 2013 - 06:03 PM, said:

hey storm or anyone..lol.. i am having trouble with gfs for some reason... missiing data... what does it look like for west tennessee? the storm after newyears?

West Tenn. Is in a great spot!!!!!

#60 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 23 December 2013 - 06:14 PM

View Poststorm5, on 23 December 2013 - 06:11 PM, said:

West Tenn. Is in a great spot!!!!!
thanks, dont know what went wrong on my end with ncep site... at least storm is still there



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