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Tropical Storm Fernand makes landfall just north of Veracruz Mexico


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#1 metallicwx366

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Posted 24 August 2013 - 12:45 PM

Actually looks great over land. This one has some potential to at least earn a name.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE... 30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Edited by SWL, 26 August 2013 - 03:12 AM.


#2 metallicwx366

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Posted 24 August 2013 - 06:37 PM

Up to 50%.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OCCURS OR NOT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.


#3 SWL

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 12:47 AM

CODE RED

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF
THE YUCATAN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...BUT
NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION.  THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE
IT REACHES THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

#4 metallicwx366

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 11:51 AM

Obviously a tropical storm now. NHC I guess is waiting for recon.

#5 SWL

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 02:20 PM

and just as I walk out the door...

http://ftp.nhc.noaa....13_al052013.ren

Should be TD 5 or Fernand at 5.

#6 metallicwx366

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 05:55 PM

Recon found a 45mph storm.

#7 aarontabr

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 09:59 PM

Some slight strengthening as of 10pm to 50 mph.

#8 SWL

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 12:30 AM

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MADE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ AT 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 50
MPH...85 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



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