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Winter 2013-14 (Early speculations)


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#31 Met1985

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 08:34 PM

One outlook I have seen about the AO is that there will be plenty of blocking from the AO but looks like the NAO not so much. My source was Brett Anderson over on Accuweather.com in one of his blogs. Again just an outlook but take it with a grain of salt.

#32 JBowling

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 01:41 PM

I know one thing. Places in Siberia such as Yakutsk, Khatanga, are pretty darn warm. Even in North America, places such as Baker Lake, NW Territories like Yellowknife are fairly warm as well!!!

#33 metallicwx366

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:03 PM

^Lol. The Siberia snowcover thing didn't work last year.

Edited by metallicwx366, 10 August 2013 - 03:03 PM.


#34 andyhb

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:33 PM

View Postmetallicwx366, on 10 August 2013 - 03:03 PM, said:

^Lol. The Siberia snowcover thing didn't work last year.

Not many things work for winter in Waycross, GA.
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#35 Tyler Penland

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 06:16 PM

I plan to get around to researching this, but does anybody know of any soil-moisture to winter coorelations? We have unquestionably some of the highest soil moisture values in recent history going right now, and I would imagine that will have some impact come winter as this pattern doesn't look to dry out anytime soon.
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#36 SUB900

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 07:28 PM

Here is an on topic (for this thread) writeup I did on my blog this evening...enjoy!

LET ME SAY RIGHT UP FRONT..THAT THIS IS NOT IN ANYWAY SHAPE OR FORM A WINTER FORECAST OR AN OUTLOOK!! MY WINTER OUTLOOK WILL BE PUBLISHED AROUND OCT 20th

**This is nothing more than discussion on winter pattern possibillities based on current and past scientific data and the jet stream pattern this spring/summer **

This post has some abbreviations in it that you might not recognize so here are what they represent

AO = ARCTIC OSCILLATION
NAO = NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLSTION
QBO = QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION
CONUS = CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES

Good evening weather nerds and those who generally just like to argue about the weather. We currently have several anomalous factors already in play that could make for quite the up and down in winter temperature/pattern extremes. First of all the +QBO this winter is pretty much a given statistcally and climatologically speakiing. It just turned positive and on average it remains that way for around 10 straight months and this +QBO will statistically argue for a +AO/+NAO winter!

However.. I think there is great potential for many long lasting and anomalous strong ridges and deep troughs in the longwave weather pattern across the CONUS. This is mainly due to the near record strength drought out in the western U.S this summer! If this pattern continues this winter it will favor strong ridging in the west which in turn could make for some very deep troughs in the eas!.

With the NAO/AO being perdominately neutral to positive (No high lat blocking this summer) in theory should have caused alot of zonal flow across the North American longwave weather pattern. However..the intense drought out west has encouraged higher pressures/upper level ridges much more so than normal! This has and is continuing to cause a very amplified mid latitude jet stream pattern. If this continues into the late fall/winter it could possibly be one of the very few winters where any +NAO that develops could have little to no effect on the winter weather pattern here in the eastern US!

When WXeastern analyze's the October AO data and its trends due to WXeastern's own OAOIC© (October Arctic Oscillation index Correlation) if its negative then a very cold winter in the eastern US could certainly be possible. This means that WXeastern will pretty much know (Statistically speaking) if a possibly frigid winter is in store come mid October despite the +QBO!

Posted Image

Edited by SUB900, 10 August 2013 - 07:35 PM.

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#37 Met1985

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 08:21 PM

View PostSUB900, on 10 August 2013 - 07:28 PM, said:

Here is an on topic (for this thread) writeup I did on my blog this evening...enjoy!

LET ME SAY RIGHT UP FRONT..THAT THIS IS NOT IN ANYWAY SHAPE OR FORM A WINTER FORECAST OR AN OUTLOOK!! MY WINTER OUTLOOK WILL BE PUBLISHED AROUND OCT 20th

**This is nothing more than discussion on winter pattern possibillities based on current and past scientific data and the jet stream pattern this spring/summer **

This post has some abbreviations in it that you might not recognize so here are what they represent

AO = ARCTIC OSCILLATION
NAO = NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLSTION
QBO = QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION
CONUS = CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES

Good evening weather nerds and those who generally just like to argue about the weather. We currently have several anomalous factors already in play that could make for quite the up and down in winter temperature/pattern extremes. First of all the +QBO this winter is pretty much a given statistcally and climatologically speakiing. It just turned positive and on average it remains that way for around 10 straight months and this +QBO will statistically argue for a +AO/+NAO winter!

However.. I think there is great potential for many long lasting and anomalous strong ridges and deep troughs in the longwave weather pattern across the CONUS. This is mainly due to the near record strength drought out in the western U.S this summer! If this pattern continues this winter it will favor strong ridging in the west which in turn could make for some very deep troughs in the eas!.

With the NAO/AO being perdominately neutral to positive (No high lat blocking this summer) in theory should have caused alot of zonal flow across the North American longwave weather pattern. However..the intense drought out west has encouraged higher pressures/upper level ridges much more so than normal! This has and is continuing to cause a very amplified mid latitude jet stream pattern. If this continues into the late fall/winter it could possibly be one of the very few winters where any +NAO that develops could have little to no effect on the winter weather pattern here in the eastern US!

When WXeastern analyze's the October AO data and its trends due to WXeastern's own OAOIC© (October Arctic Oscillation index Correlation) if its negative then a very cold winter in the eastern US could certainly be possible. This means that WXeastern will pretty much know (Statistically speaking) if a possibly frigid winter is in store come mid October despite the +QBO!

Posted Image
Thanks for the write up. My worry is this pattern reverses as we head into fall and winter. I would like to think this pattern may stick through the cold season but I am on the fence about that right know. Really this winter has all the signs of being wide open in terms of patterns. Not really a big signal out there to look at. We all know the PNA,NAO, and AO out pretty much useless about 10+ days out. Should be fun to watch either way.

Edited by Met1985, 10 August 2013 - 11:20 PM.


#38 superjames1992

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:19 PM

If we could only get as wet of a winter as we've had this spring......

KGSO is something like 10" above normal in rainfall now.
Winter 2013-2014
First Frost: 10/24
First Freeze: 10/26
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#39 metallicwx366

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:25 PM

View Postandyhb, on 10 August 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:



Not many things work for winter in Waycross, GA.
Lol! I wasn't just talking about Waycross though.

#40 metallicwx366

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:38 PM

What is so special about October? Why is that used as an indicator for winter? October Siberia snowcover? October AO and NAO?
Then you have billions of other things such as the Global Wind Oscillation, PDO, PNA, AAO, MJO, QBO, Worms, Bugs, Roaches, Squirrels, Birds, and other stuff that has to come together for a good winter. We get a new factor each year. Can't wait for this year's new event or winter.

#41 Met1985

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:48 PM

View Postmetallicwx366, on 10 August 2013 - 11:38 PM, said:

What is so special about October? Why is that used as an indicator for winter? October Siberia snowcover? October AO and NAO?
Then you have billions of other things such as the Global Wind Oscillation, PDO, PNA, AAO, MJO, QBO, Worms, Bugs, Roaches, Squirrels, Birds, and other stuff that has to come together for a good winter. We get a new factor each year. Can't wait for this year's new event or winter.
Lol I watch the squirrels quite a bit in October.

#42 xtreme weather

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Posted 11 August 2013 - 11:54 AM

View Postsuperjames1992, on 10 August 2013 - 11:19 PM, said:

If we could only get as wet of a winter as we've had this spring......

KGSO is something like 10" above normal in rainfall now.

I'll pass just too much rain in E AL...at my location 23.12" above normal precip YTD

To compare officially at NWS ANB local reporting station
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
447 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

...................................

...THE ANNISTON CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 10 2013...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1903 TO 2013
PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.00          1.97 1951   0.11  -0.11     1.04
  MONTH TO DATE    1.96                      1.16   0.80     5.10
  SINCE JUN 1     21.35                      9.86  11.49    13.04
  SINCE JAN 1     54.28                     32.79  21.49    30.08
http://www.nws.noaa....dex.php?wfo=bmx

As for the upcoming winter EURO insist below average "look", will be a cold with a "block pattern" taking hold...we will see
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#43 SUB900

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Posted 11 August 2013 - 07:30 PM

View Postmetallicwx366, on 10 August 2013 - 11:38 PM, said:

What is so special about October?
Several statistically reliable correlations... Dr Cohens SAI (Snow Advance index) to winter pattern correlation.. October Gulf stream SST to winter NAO correlation..and my recently discovered OAIC (October Arctic Oscilation index correlation) which shows a strong realtionship between the Oct AO value and met winter AO value when the Oct AO value is equal to or > than +/-1.00 These are all statistically reliable indicators of winter time patterns across the united states.

Edited by SUB900, 11 August 2013 - 07:32 PM.

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#44 Stormlover

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 12:57 PM

fyi, -71 at the South Pole this morning

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
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#45 brax

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 06:52 PM

View PostStormlover, on 19 August 2013 - 12:57 PM, said:

fyi, -71 at the South Pole this morning

Celsius or Fahrenheit?
Either way that's bloody cold!
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#46 Stormlover

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 09:36 PM

View Postbrax, on 19 August 2013 - 06:52 PM, said:

Celsius or Fahrenheit?
Either way that's bloody cold!
F

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#47 brax

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Posted 19 August 2013 - 09:56 PM

View PostStormlover, on 19 August 2013 - 12:57 PM, said:

fyi, -71 at the South Pole this morning
It's -81 now... lol
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#48 vegaseagle

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Posted 20 August 2013 - 11:05 AM

- 86  is that what I just read on that link? Also, 10 MPH winds. What would be the wind chill?  Over - 100?

Edited by vegaseagle, 20 August 2013 - 11:06 AM.


#49 brax

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Posted 20 August 2013 - 11:10 AM

Currently:

Quote

Temperature  -86 F (-66 C)
Windchill  -122 F (-86 C)

Mmmmm... toasty! lol
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#50 Ghost

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 12:23 PM

The Farmer's Almanac weighs in.... http://www.upi.com/b.../6141377519282/
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#51 Stormlover

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 02:58 PM

View PostGhost, on 26 August 2013 - 12:23 PM, said:

The Farmer's Almanac weighs in.... http://www.upi.com/b.../6141377519282/
Posted Image

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#52 blizzardof96

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:05 AM

Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcent...14-outlook.html

#53 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 09:10 AM

very nicely done... enjoyed reading it... I agree with all aspects pretty much... if we don't have a nice winter, I am personally rooting for one hell of a big severe wx event...  with a slight ridge in the se that will help for severe weather plust maybe heading to a slight la nina pattern... going to be an interested winter

#54 Stormlover

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 01:54 PM

Just saw this from wxrisk
The last time we had no hurricanes in August during hurricane season was back in August of 2002. And the last time we read this late without a hurricane forming at all was the hurricane season of 1977. Both of those winters turned out to be severe winters for much of the central and eastern CONUS

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#55 Stormlover

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 07:34 PM

From Robert at WxSouth:
Overall, there is a tendency for Greenland Blocking, a Tri-Pole Atlantic Setup, and much colder airmasses coming down with bigger Arctic Highs this Winter, that the last two Winters. The Pacific is different, the Atlantic is different, and much more. This spells more snow, ice and cold weather than last year, and probably more than the climatological 30 year averages as well.  Northern Alabama to the Washington DC region looks to be the winners as of this early stage in Winter forecasting.


Posted Image

Edited by Stormlover, 21 September 2013 - 07:36 PM.

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#56 storm5

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 10:04 PM

View PostStormlover, on 21 September 2013 - 07:34 PM, said:

From Robert at WxSouth:
Overall, there is a tendency for Greenland Blocking, a Tri-Pole Atlantic Setup, and much colder airmasses coming down with bigger Arctic Highs this Winter, that the last two Winters. The Pacific is different, the Atlantic is different, and much more. This spells more snow, ice and cold weather than last year, and probably more than the climatological 30 year averages as well.  Northern Alabama to the Washington DC region looks to be the winners as of this early stage in Winter forecasting.


Posted Image

Let's hope Robert rested up over the summer cause last yeah he was bust city.

#57 Tyler Penland

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 10:41 PM

View Poststorm5, on 21 September 2013 - 10:04 PM, said:

Let's hope Robert rested up over the summer cause last yeah he was bust city.

Lots of folks were bust city last year. IMO the disappearance of the cold PDO is gonna have a pretty big effect on the Pacific this year. Will be interesting to see if we can get into the warm phase and get a weak Nino by Jan/Feb or so.
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#58 storm5

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 10:57 PM

View PostTyler Penland, on 21 September 2013 - 10:41 PM, said:



Lots of folks were bust city last year. IMO the disappearance of the cold PDO is gonna have a pretty big effect on the Pacific this year. Will be interesting to see if we can get into the warm phase and get a weak Nino by Jan/Feb or so.

Yes that is very true, but not many people were using descriptive works like " epic" or " blockbuster" time and time again. I like Robert I just think he over hypes a bunch.

#59 Tyler Penland

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 11:06 PM

View Poststorm5, on 21 September 2013 - 10:57 PM, said:

Yes that is very true, but not many people were using descriptive works like " epic" or " blockbuster" time and time again. I like Robert I just think he over hypes a bunch.

It's a product of running a business. I freely admit to over-hyping events on my page sometimes, but unfortunately that is what it takes to get a lot of people's attention.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Talkweather.com. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

"Scratch my back with a lightning bolt   
Thunder rolls like a basedrum note
The sounds of the weather is heaven's ragtime band..."~JB

"We ask ourselves when we get in a fix, what would Popeye do in a tight spot like this?
He'd race for his true love and easily win it, in an old spinach can with a mast stuck in it..."~JB

My weather page on Facebook: www.facebook.com/northeastgawx
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#60 Thunder91

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 11:16 PM

More snow, ice, and cold weather than last winter isn't saying a whole lot....



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